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Ivinhema vs Chapadao

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2023
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
10' Event
16' Event

AI Match Summary

Chapadao in this Sul-Matogrossense 2023 tie, finishing 2-4. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Ivinhema
30%
Draws
41%
Chapadao
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Chapadao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Ivinhema have won more games recently than Chapadao.
  • Ivinhema are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Ivinhema have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Chapadao, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Ivinhema Clean Sheet 17%
Chapadao Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ivinhema Chapadao
Matches Played 41 30
Wins 15 13
Draws 10 5
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1.41 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.54 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Chapadao
2:4
Mar 26, 2023 Sul-Matogrossense
Chapadao vs Ivinhema
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ivinhema 36 / 100
Chapadao 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ivinhema Chapadao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Chapadao has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 4.50 goals as a typical output.

Ivinhema found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (41 games).

Ivinhema went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ivinhema VS -
1.88 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ivinhema

(Home)
12 Jul
ASA
4 : 0
Ivinhema
06 Jul
Ivinhema
1 : 2
ASA
29 Jun
Democrata GV
1 : 1
Ivinhema
21 Jun
Ivinhema
3 : 1
Democrata GV
14 Jun
CRAC
1 : 1
Ivinhema
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Chapadao

(Away)
02 Apr
Ivinhema
2 : 4
Chapadao
26 Mar
Chapadao
0 : 3
Ivinhema
12 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Chapadao
05 Mar
Chapadao
1 : 1
Coxim
03 Mar
Comercial MS
0 : 1
Chapadao
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Novoperario 3
Operario MS 4
Coxim 0
Dourados 8
Chapadao 4
Ivinhema 5
Aquidauanense 1
Costa Rica 2
Semi-finals
Operario MS 2
Dourados 1
Ivinhema 1
Costa Rica 1
Final
Operario MS 1
Costa Rica 1