Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ivinhema vs Corumbaense

Brazil Brazil

Sul-Matogrossense 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Thiaguinho
27' Event
Elieser
35' Event
Matheus Rodrigues

AI Match Summary

The Sul-Matogrossense 2025 game between Ivinhema and Corumbaense finished 6-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ivinhema.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Ivinhema
30%
Draws
41%
Corumbaense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Corumbaense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Ivinhema carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Corumbaense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Ivinhema Clean Sheet 18%
Corumbaense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ivinhema Corumbaense
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 9
Draws 9 9
Losses 13 12
Goals Scored 1.34 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2026 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Ivinhema
1:0
Feb 16, 2025 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Corumbaense
6:1
Feb 24, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Ivinhema
4:1
Jan 27, 2024 Sul-Matogrossense
Ivinhema vs Corumbaense
2:2
Mar 11, 2017 Sul-Matogrossense
Corumbaense vs Ivinhema
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ivinhema Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiaguinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Elieser
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Corumbaense Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Rodrigues
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ivinhema 20 / 100
Corumbaense 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ivinhema Corumbaense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Corumbaense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Ivinhema's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Corumbaense let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Ivinhema remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Ivinhema VS Corumbaense
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ivinhema

(Home)
12 Jul
ASA
4 : 0
Ivinhema
06 Jul
Ivinhema
1 : 2
ASA
29 Jun
Democrata GV
1 : 1
Ivinhema
21 Jun
Ivinhema
3 : 1
Democrata GV
14 Jun
CRAC
1 : 1
Ivinhema
Page 1 of 7

Corumbaense

(Away)
18 Mar
Operario MS
2 : 1
Corumbaense
15 Mar
Corumbaense
1 : 2
Operario MS
11 Mar
Corumbaense
2 : 0
Dourados
08 Mar
Dourados
1 : 1
Corumbaense
01 Mar
Costa Rica
0 : 2
Corumbaense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ivinhema 9 6 1 2 21:7 19
2 Pantanal 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
3 Dourados 9 5 3 1 17:7 18
4 Operario MS 9 5 1 3 11:12 16
5 Costa Rica 9 3 5 1 14:10 14
6 Aguia Negra 9 3 2 4 14:14 11
7 Naviraiense 9 2 3 4 11:14 9
8 Corumbaense 9 2 2 5 8:14 8
9 Coxim 9 2 1 6 7:18 7
10 Aquidauanense 9 1 1 7 12:29 4
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sul-Matogrossense 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Sul-Matogrossense 2 (Main)