Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Iztapa vs Santa Lucia

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2022/2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Iztapa play Santa Lucia in the Liga Nacional 2022/2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, Iztapa averaged 1.33 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. Santa Lucia averaged 0.63 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Iztapa won 3, Santa Lucia won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 30, 2023 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Iztapa and 1.63 for Santa Lucia. This points to a Iztapa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Iztapa
27%
Draws
29%
Santa Lucia
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Iztapa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Iztapa picked up more points recently compared to Santa Lucia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 68%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Iztapa Clean Sheet 14%
Santa Lucia Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 61%
Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Iztapa Santa Lucia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 6
Draws 7 6
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 1.33 0.63
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2023 Liga Nacional
Iztapa vs Santa Lucia
1:0
Mar 1, 2023 Liga Nacional
Santa Lucia vs Iztapa
1:2
Oct 2, 2022 Liga Nacional
Santa Lucia vs Iztapa
2:3
Jul 31, 2022 Liga Nacional
Iztapa vs Santa Lucia
1:1
May 8, 2022 Liga Nacional
Santa Lucia vs Iztapa
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Iztapa Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez Galindo F. D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Santa Lucia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Iztapa 42 / 100
Santa Lucia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Iztapa Santa Lucia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Iztapa or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Iztapa attacking → ← attacking Santa Lucia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Iztapa scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Santa Lucia let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Iztapa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Santa Lucia lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

28 Points in last 5 24
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Comunicaciones22129137:1645
2Municipal22134544:2143
3Xelaju22127331:943
4Xinabajul2287727:2931
5Guastatoya2278728:2229
6Deportivo Mixco2278723:2429
7Antigua2285933:3729
8Deportivo Achuapa22751024:4426
9Coban Imperial2267916:1725
10Iztapa22551230:4920
11Malacateco22471124:3319
12Santa Lucia22541314:3019