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Stadium Background

Jabaquara vs Comercial

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

22' Event
Gustavo Cezar
48' Event
Cristopher
(Penalty)
88' Event
Perea J.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between Jabaquara and Comercial finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jabaquara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Jabaquara
30%
Draws
23%
Comercial
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Jabaquara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Comercial come out ahead of Jabaquara on wins alone.
  • Jabaquara are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Paulista A4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Jabaquara Clean Sheet 68%
Comercial Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jabaquara Comercial
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 6 4
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.87 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Paulista A4
Jabaquara vs Comercial
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jabaquara Compare

Top Goalscorer Gustavo Cezar
1 Goals
Assists Leader Perea J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Comercial Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jabaquara 86 / 100
Comercial 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jabaquara Comercial

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jabaquara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Comercial has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Jabaquara remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Comercial's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Jabaquara VS Comercial
1.57 Goals Scored 1.63
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
71% Over 1.5 75%
57% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Jabaquara

(Home)
04 Apr
AEA Aracatuba
0 : 3
Jabaquara
28 Mar
Jabaquara
2 : 1
Comercial
25 Mar
Lemense
0 : 0
Jabaquara
21 Mar
Jabaquara
1 : 1
Taquaritinga
18 Mar
Penapolense
3 : 2
Jabaquara
Page 1 of 6

Comercial

(Away)
31 Aug
Comercial
2 : 0
EC Sao Bernardo
22 Aug
Noroeste
4 : 3
Comercial
18 Aug
Comercial
0 : 1
Piracicaba
08 Aug
Uniao Sao Joao
1 : 1
Comercial
31 Jul
Comercial
0 : 1
Uniao Sao Joao
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)