Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce

Poland Poland

Ekstraklasa Chorten Arena, Bialystok
Sat, Jul 25, 2026
VS
12:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jagiellonia host Korona Kielce in the Ekstraklasa. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Jagiellonia at 1.75 goals for, 0.88 against; Korona Kielce at 1 for, 0.63 against. Head-to-head, Jagiellonia have won 3 to Korona Kielce's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 10, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.19 xG vs 0.94) point toward Jagiellonia. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Jagiellonia
22%
Draws
18%
Korona Kielce
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Jagiellonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Jagiellonia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Jagiellonia are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Ekstraklasa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Jagiellonia Clean Sheet 20%
Korona Kielce Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jagiellonia Korona Kielce
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 13 9
Draws 9 8
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.75 1
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 10, 2026 Ekstraklasa
Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce
3:1
Apr 27, 2025 Ekstraklasa
Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia
3:1
Oct 27, 2024 Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce
3:1
May 11, 2024 Ekstraklasa
Jagiellonia vs Korona Kielce
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jagiellonia 58 / 100
Korona Kielce 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jagiellonia Korona Kielce

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JAG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Jagiellonia remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Jagiellonia's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Korona Kielce has conceded goals in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

Jagiellonia VS Korona Kielce
1.75 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Jagiellonia

(Home)
17 Jul
Nordsjaelland
1 : 2
Jagiellonia
16 Jul
Jagiellonia
1 : 0
Sparta Prague
12 Jul
Jagiellonia
1 : 0
Pafos
09 Jul
Polissya Zhytomyr
0 : 0
Jagiellonia
04 Jul
Jagiellonia
4 : 1
Pogon Siedlce
Page 1 of 6

Korona Kielce

(Away)
17 Jul
Korona Kielce
0 : 2
Termalica Bruk-Bet
14 Jul
Korona Kielce
0 : 0
S. Rzeszow
09 Jul
Korona Kielce
0 : 0
Omonia
04 Jul
Korona Kielce
4 : 0
Michalovce
23 May
Cracovia
1 : 1
Korona Kielce
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Jagiellonia00000:00
2Gornik Zabrze00000:00
3Korona Kielce00000:00
4Piast Gliwice00000:00
5GKS Katowice00000:00
6Motor Lublin00000:00
7Slask Wroclaw00000:00
8Wisla Plock00000:00
9Pogon Szczecin00000:00
10Wisla00000:00
11Legia00000:00
12Lech Poznan00000:00
13Zaglebie00000:00
14Cracovia00000:00
15Widzew Lodz00000:00
16Radomiak Radom00000:00
17Rakow Czestochowa00000:00
18KS Wieczysta Krakow00000:00
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Division 1 2027/2028 (Main)