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Jaiyq vs Tobol 2 Prediction & H2H Stats

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Jaiyq Logo

Jaiyq

1 - 0
FT
Tobol 2 Logo

Tobol 2

Our Tip

Match Events

78' Event
Umbetov T.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Jaiyq in this First League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jaiyq.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Jaiyq
20%
Draws
44%
Tobol 2
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tobol 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Jaiyq lately — more wins on the board than Tobol 2.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular First League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Jaiyq Clean Sheet 17%
Tobol 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaiyq Tobol 2
Matches Played 24 29
Wins 9 5
Draws 4 7
Losses 11 17
Goals Scored 0.92 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.21 2.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 9, 2026 First League
Jaiyq vs Tobol 2
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaiyq Compare

Top Goalscorer Umbetov T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Tobol 2 Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaiyq 36 / 100
Tobol 2 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaiyq Tobol 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tobol 2 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tobol 2's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

Jaiyq found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (24 games).

Jaiyq has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Tobol 2's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Jaiyq VS Tobol 2
1.25 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaiyq

(Home)
17 Sept
Akademiya Ontustik
0 : 0
Jaiyq
11 Sept
Jaiyq
1 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
04 Sept
Jaiyq
2 : 0
Yelimay Semey 2
28 Aug
Aktobe 2
1 : 0
Jaiyq
21 Aug
Jaiyq
0 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
Page 1 of 5

Tobol 2

(Away)
19 Sept
Tobol 2
3 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
11 Sept
FC Ekibastuz
1 : 5
Tobol 2
03 Sept
Tobol 2
0 : 1
Kairat Almaty 2
28 Aug
Taraz
3 : 1
Tobol 2
20 Aug
Tobol 2
3 : 4
Khan Tengri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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