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Jalapa vs Matagalpa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Copa Primera Estadio Alejandro Ramos Turcio, Jalapa
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Luna P.
16' Event
Villalobos O.
23' Event
Da Silva R.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-2. The second leg ended 3-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Jalapa
20%
Draws
65%
Matagalpa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Matagalpa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Matagalpa haven't matched Jalapa's recent run of results.
  • 65% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Jalapa have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Matagalpa, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Jalapa Clean Sheet 20%
Matagalpa Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jalapa Matagalpa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.31 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Matagalpa
0:1
Jul 12, 2026 Copa Primera
Jalapa vs Matagalpa
3:2
Jul 5, 2026 Copa Primera
Matagalpa vs Jalapa
3:1
Apr 11, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Matagalpa
1:1
Feb 11, 2026 Liga Primera
Matagalpa vs Jalapa
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jalapa Compare

Top Goalscorer Villalobos O.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Luna P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Matagalpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Da Silva R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Garcia J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jalapa 32 / 100
Matagalpa 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jalapa Matagalpa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Matagalpa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Jalapa's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Matagalpa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Jalapa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jalapa VS Matagalpa
0.38 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Jalapa

(Home)
04 Oct
Walter Ferreti
2 : 2
Jalapa
05 Sept
San Marcos
3 : 1
Jalapa
02 Sept
Jalapa
1 : 1
Rancho Santana
30 Aug
Diriangen
2 : 0
Jalapa
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
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Matagalpa

(Away)
07 Sept
Matagalpa
0 : 3
Diriangen
04 Sept
Matagalpa
1 : 0
UNAN-Managua
30 Aug
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
16 Aug
Matagalpa
1 : 0
San Marcos
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Diriangen 2
Sport Sebaco 3
Matagalpa 5
Jalapa 4
Xilotepelt 0
Esteli 3
Rancho Santana 2
Managua FC 5
Semi-finals
Sport Sebaco -
Matagalpa -
Esteli -
Managua FC -
Final
TBD -
TBD -