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Jalapa vs Real Madriz

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Luna P.
66' Event
Rosales O.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Primera 2025/2026 game between Jalapa and Real Madriz finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jalapa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Jalapa
20%
Draws
64%
Real Madriz
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Real Madriz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

16% / Low Confidence
  • Jalapa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Jalapa here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 41.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Jalapa Clean Sheet 19%
Real Madriz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jalapa Real Madriz
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 13 5
Draws 7 4
Losses 11 21
Goals Scored 1.35 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.19 2.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.10 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 16, 2026 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Real Madriz
2:0
Feb 14, 2026 Liga Primera
Real Madriz vs Jalapa
0:3
Nov 1, 2025 Liga Primera
Real Madriz vs Jalapa
1:2
Aug 24, 2025 Liga Primera
Jalapa vs Real Madriz
4:2
Apr 25, 2022 Liga Primera
Real Madriz vs Jalapa
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jalapa Compare

Top Goalscorer Luna P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rosales O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.62
Avg xA / game 1.05

Real Madriz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jalapa 31 / 100
Real Madriz 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jalapa Real Madriz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jalapa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Madriz's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Jalapa's goal record stands at 68% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Away concern: Real Madriz has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Jalapa VS Real Madriz
1.88 Goals Scored 0
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.33
88% Over 1.5 67%
63% Over 2.5 33%
50% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Jalapa

(Home)
05 Sept
San Marcos
3 : 1
Jalapa
02 Sept
Jalapa
1 : 1
Rancho Santana
30 Aug
Diriangen
2 : 0
Jalapa
23 Aug
Jalapa
0 : 1
Matagalpa
17 Aug
UNAN-Managua
2 : 1
Jalapa
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Real Madriz

(Away)
25 Apr
Real Madriz
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
19 Apr
Diriangen
4 : 0
Real Madriz
16 Apr
Jalapa
2 : 0
Real Madriz
12 Apr
Real Madriz
1 : 0
UNAN-Managua
09 Apr
Sport Sebaco
2 : 2
Real Madriz
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Diriangen 18 12 3 3 40:19 39
2 Esteli 18 11 4 3 41:19 37
3 Jalapa 18 9 6 3 29:16 33
4 Managua FC 18 8 5 5 22:18 29
5 Matagalpa 18 5 7 6 30:24 22
6 Walter Ferreti 18 5 6 7 18:28 21
7 Sport Sebaco 18 6 2 10 23:24 20
8 UNAN-Managua 18 4 4 10 21:34 16
9 Rancho Santana 18 4 4 10 20:43 16
10 Real Madriz 18 4 3 11 14:33 15
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera 2025/2026 (Clausura - Winners)