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Jamaica vs Guatemala

North & Central America North & Central America

Gold Cup Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
Jamaica Logo

Jamaica

0 - 1
FT
Guatemala Logo

Guatemala

Our Tip

Match Events

19'
Lowe D.
32' Event
Santis O.
Assist: Lom D.
46'
Sub
King R. In: Lembikisa D.
Out: King R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Jamaica
15%
Draws
0%
Guatemala
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jamaica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Jamaica have won more games recently than Guatemala.
  • Model gives Jamaica a 85% chance of winning this.
  • Jamaica have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Jamaica, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Jamaica Clean Sheet 20%
Guatemala Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jamaica Guatemala
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 17 10
Draws 6 5
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.53 1.33
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.51
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 CONCACAF Nations League
Jamaica vs Guatemala
3:2
Jun 17, 2025 Gold Cup
Jamaica vs Guatemala
0:1
Jun 10, 2025 World Championship
Jamaica vs Guatemala
3:0
Nov 12, 2023 Friendly International
Guatemala vs Jamaica
0:0
Jul 9, 2023 Gold Cup
Guatemala vs Jamaica
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jamaica Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Guatemala Compare

Top Goalscorer Santis O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.46
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jamaica 40 / 100
Guatemala 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jamaica Guatemala

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jamaica Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Jamaica scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Guatemala conceded in 85% of 27 recent games.

Away concern: Guatemala has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Jamaica VS Guatemala
0.88 Goals Scored 0.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 2
50% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jamaica

(Home)
26 Sept
Jamaica
3 : 2
Guatemala
06 Jun
Jamaica
1 : 1
South Africa
30 May
Jamaica
0 : 3
Nigeria
27 May
Jamaica
2 : 0
India
31 Mar
D.R. Congo
1 : 0
Jamaica
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Guatemala

(Away)
26 Sept
Jamaica
3 : 2
Guatemala
07 Jun
Ecuador
3 : 0
Guatemala
05 Jun
Czech Republic
3 : 1
Guatemala
27 Mar
Algeria
7 : 0
Guatemala
18 Jan
Canada
1 : 0
Guatemala
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mexico 3 2 1 0 5:2 7
2 Costa Rica 3 2 1 0 6:4 7
3 Dominican Republic 3 0 1 2 3:5 1
4 Suriname 3 0 1 2 3:6 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Canada 3 2 1 0 9:1 7
2 Honduras 3 2 0 1 4:7 6
3 Curacao 3 0 2 1 2:3 2
4 El Salvador 3 0 1 2 0:4 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Panama 3 3 0 0 10:3 9
2 Guatemala 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
3 Jamaica 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
4 Guadeloupe 3 0 0 3 5:10 0
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 USA 3 3 0 0 8:1 9
2 Saudi Arabia 3 1 1 1 2:2 4
3 Trinidad & Tobago 3 0 2 1 2:7 2
4 Haiti 3 0 1 2 2:4 1
Promotion - Gold Cup 2023 (Play Offs)