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Japan U23 vs North Korea U23 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Asia Asia

Asian Games 2022
Japan U23 Logo

Japan U23

2 - 1
FT
North Korea U23 Logo

North Korea U23

Our Tip

Match Events

5'
Paek Chung-Song
25'
Yoshida M.
30'
Kim Kyong-Sok
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Japan U23 in this Asian Games 2022 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Japan U23
15%
Draws
31%
North Korea U23
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan U23

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Japan U23 lately — more wins on the board than North Korea U23.
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on Japan U23 taking it.
  • Japan U23 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan U23, who have won 4 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Japan U23 here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Japan U23 Clean Sheet 20%
North Korea U23 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan U23 North Korea U23
Matches Played 33 27
Wins 26 12
Draws 3 7
Losses 4 8
Goals Scored 2.24 1.37
Goals Conceded 0.61 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.91
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 Asian Games
Japan U23 vs North Korea U23
1:0
Oct 1, 2023 Asian Games
Japan U23 vs North Korea U23
2:1
Jan 16, 2018 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs North Korea U23
3:1
Jan 13, 2016 AFC Asian Cup U23
Japan U23 vs North Korea U23
1:0
Dec 6, 2006 Asian Games
Japan U23 vs North Korea U23
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Uchino K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

North Korea U23 Compare

Top Goalscorer Kim Kuk-Bom
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.83
Avg xA / game 0.51

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan U23 85 / 100
North Korea U23 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan U23 North Korea U23

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan U23 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan U23 scored in 91% of their last 33 games.

Defensive concern: North Korea U23 conceded in 67% of 27 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.40 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Japan U23 remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Japan U23 VS North Korea U23
3 Goals Scored 1.43
0.38 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 71%
63% Over 2.5 43%
38% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan U23

(Home)
03 Oct
South Korea U23
1 : 0
Japan U23
30 Sept
Uzbekistan U23
1 : 2
Japan U23
26 Sept
Japan U23
1 : 0
North Korea U23
23 Sept
Japan U23
3 : 0
Thailand U23
20 Sept
Kyrgyzstan U23
0 : 7
Japan U23
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North Korea U23

(Away)
26 Sept
Japan U23
1 : 0
North Korea U23
23 Sept
Iran U23
1 : 4
North Korea U23
20 Sept
North Korea U23
0 : 0
United Arab Emirates U23
16 Sept
China U23
2 : 1
North Korea U23
31 Mar
North Korea U23
3 : 1
Thailand U23
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
China U23 1
Qatar U23 0
South Korea U23 5
Kyrgyzstan U23 1
Uzbekistan U23 2
Indonesia U23 0
India U23 0
Saudi Arabia U23 2
Iran U23 2
Thailand U23 0
Hong Kong U23 1
Palestine U23 0
Japan U23 7
Myanmar U23 0
North Korea U23 2
Bahrain U23 0
Quarter-finals
China U23 0
South Korea U23 2
Uzbekistan U23 2
Saudi Arabia U23 1
Iran U23 0
Hong Kong U23 1
Japan U23 2
North Korea U23 1
Semi-finals
South Korea U23 2
Uzbekistan U23 1
Hong Kong U23 0
Japan U23 4
Final
South Korea U23 2
Japan U23 1
Uzbekistan U23 4
Hong Kong U23 0