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Japan vs Brazil Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

Friendly International 2025 Tokyo Stadium, Tokyo
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Paulo Henrique
Assist: Bruno Guimaraes
32' Event
Martinelli G.
Assist: Lucas Paqueta
52' Event
Minamino T.

AI Match Summary

Japan in this Friendly International 2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Japan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Japan
20%
Draws
40%
Brazil
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Japan have won more games recently than Brazil.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Friendly International 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Brazil have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Japan Clean Sheet 12%
Brazil Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan Brazil
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 20 15
Draws 6 7
Losses 3 7
Goals Scored 2.28 1.86
Goals Conceded 0.59 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2026 World Championship
Brazil vs Japan
2:1
Oct 14, 2025 Friendly International
Japan vs Brazil
3:2
Jun 6, 2022 Friendly International
Japan vs Brazil
0:1
Nov 10, 2017 Friendly International
Japan vs Brazil
1:3
Oct 14, 2014 Friendly International
Japan vs Brazil
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan Compare

Top Goalscorer Minamino T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nakamura K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Brazil Compare

Top Goalscorer Paulo Henrique
1 Goals
Assists Leader Martinelli G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan 30 / 100
Brazil 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan Brazil

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Japan scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Brazil has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Japan remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Japan VS Brazil
1.88 Goals Scored 2.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan

(Home)
01 Oct
Japan
1 : 0
Ecuador
28 Sept
Japan
2 : 1
Venezuela
24 Sept
Japan
3 : 1
Uruguay
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
25 Jun
Japan
1 : 1
Sweden
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Brazil

(Away)
29 Sept
Australia
2 : 4
Brazil
25 Sept
Australia
1 : 1
Brazil
05 Jul
Brazil
1 : 2
Norway
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
24 Jun
Scotland
0 : 3
Brazil
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