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Stadium Background

Japan vs New Zealand - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Kirin Cup (Japan) New National Stadium, Tokyo
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Ueda A.
32' Event
Old B.
Assist: Wood Ch.
64'
Sub
Maeda D. In: Nakamura K.
Out: Maeda D.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Japan
15%
Draws
31%
New Zealand
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Japan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Japan carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Japan a 54% chance of winning this.
  • Japan have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Japan, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Japan here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Japan Clean Sheet 68%
New Zealand Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Japan New Zealand
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 21 12
Draws 6 4
Losses 3 13
Goals Scored 2.27 2.17
Goals Conceded 0.6 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 5, 2026 Kirin Cup (Japan)
Japan vs New Zealand
2:1
Oct 6, 2017 Friendly International
Japan vs New Zealand
2:1
Mar 5, 2014 Friendly International
Japan vs New Zealand
4:2
Mar 29, 2011 Friendly International
Japan vs New Zealand
0:0
Jun 18, 2003 FIFA Confederations Cup
New Zealand vs Japan
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Japan Compare

Top Goalscorer Ueda A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Doan R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

New Zealand Compare

Top Goalscorer Old B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Japan 77 / 100
New Zealand 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Japan New Zealand

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Japan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Japan scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

New Zealand has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Japan remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Japan VS New Zealand
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Japan

(Home)
05 Oct
Japan
2 : 1
New Zealand
01 Oct
Japan
1 : 0
Ecuador
28 Sept
Japan
2 : 1
Venezuela
24 Sept
Japan
3 : 1
Uruguay
29 Jun
Brazil
2 : 1
Japan
Page 1 of 6

New Zealand

(Away)
05 Oct
Japan
2 : 1
New Zealand
01 Oct
Panama
1 : 2
New Zealand
27 Sept
China
0 : 3
New Zealand
24 Sept
Palestine
2 : 2
New Zealand
27 Jun
New Zealand
1 : 5
Belgium
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Japan 1
Ecuador 0
Panama 1
New Zealand 2
Final
Japan 2
New Zealand 1
Ecuador 1
Panama 2