Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jaragua-SC vs Nacao

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

74' Event
Bicca M.
90' Event
Vinicius de Souza Nogueira J.

AI Match Summary

Nacao in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Nacao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Jaragua-SC
6%
Draws
90%
Nacao
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Nacao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Nacao have won more games recently than Jaragua-SC.
  • Model gives Nacao a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67%
Jaragua-SC Clean Sheet 20%
Nacao Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaragua-SC Nacao
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 3 5
Draws 4 13
Losses 21 12
Goals Scored 0.25 0.63
Goals Conceded 4.63 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 4.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 15, 2026 Catarinense 2
Jaragua-SC vs Nacao
0:2
May 20, 2026 Catarinense 2
Nacao vs Jaragua-SC
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaragua-SC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.19
Avg xA / game 0.13

Nacao Compare

Top Goalscorer Bicca M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vinicius de Souza Nogueira J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaragua-SC 10 / 100
Nacao 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaragua-SC Nacao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaragua-SC's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Nacao's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.

Difficult form: Nacao registered 2 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jaragua-SC VS Nacao
0.25 Goals Scored 0.63
4.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaragua-SC

(Home)
25 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 3
Blumenau
22 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
7 : 0
Jaragua-SC
18 Jul
CA Metropolitano
6 : 1
Jaragua-SC
15 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 2
Nacao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
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Nacao

(Away)
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Hercilio Luz
22 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2
Nacao
18 Jul
Nacao
2 : 2
Caravaggio
15 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 2
Nacao
12 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Fluminense-SC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz18133235:1042
2CA Metropolitano18122436:1838
3Caravaggio18105347:2035
4Blumenau1894535:1531
5Tubarao1865723:2123
6Guarani de Palhoca1865724:2423
7Nacao1856719:2621
8Fluminense-SC1863916:2521
9Gremio Juventus18521117:2617
10Jaragua-SC1801176:731
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)