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Jaragua-SC vs Tubarao

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense 2
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Amaral
66' Event
Franklin
82' Event
Pedro Arthur

AI Match Summary

Tubarao in this Catarinense 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Tubarao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Jaragua-SC
6%
Draws
90%
Tubarao
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Tubarao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Tubarao have won more games recently than Jaragua-SC.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Tubarao taking it.
  • Regular Catarinense 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Jaragua-SC Clean Sheet 20%
Tubarao Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaragua-SC Tubarao
Matches Played 28 34
Wins 3 10
Draws 4 9
Losses 21 15
Goals Scored 0.25 1.63
Goals Conceded 4.25 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 4.25 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 1, 2026 Catarinense 2
Jaragua-SC vs Tubarao
0:3
May 6, 2026 Catarinense 2
Tubarao vs Jaragua-SC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jaragua-SC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.19
Avg xA / game 0.13

Tubarao Compare

Top Goalscorer Amaral
1 Goals
Assists Leader Franklin
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaragua-SC 10 / 100
Tubarao 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaragua-SC Tubarao

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TUB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Away concern: Tubarao has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Jaragua-SC scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Tubarao's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

Jaragua-SC VS Tubarao
0.25 Goals Scored 1.63
4.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaragua-SC

(Home)
25 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 3
Blumenau
22 Jul
Guarani de Palhoca
7 : 0
Jaragua-SC
18 Jul
CA Metropolitano
6 : 1
Jaragua-SC
15 Jul
Jaragua-SC
0 : 2
Nacao
12 Jul
Caravaggio
9 : 0
Jaragua-SC
Page 1 of 6

Tubarao

(Away)
25 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Guarani de Palhoca
22 Jul
Fluminense-SC
2 : 1
Tubarao
19 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2
Hercilio Luz
15 Jul
Caravaggio
2 : 1
Tubarao
12 Jul
Tubarao
2 : 3
CA Metropolitano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hercilio Luz18133235:1042
2CA Metropolitano18122436:1838
3Caravaggio18105347:2035
4Blumenau1894535:1531
5Tubarao1865723:2123
6Guarani de Palhoca1865724:2423
7Nacao1856719:2621
8Fluminense-SC1863916:2521
9Gremio Juventus18521117:2617
10Jaragua-SC1801176:731
Promotion - Catarinense 2027 (Main)
Relegation - Catarinense 3 2027 (Main)