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Jaraiz vs Guadiana - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
05:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jaraiz host Guadiana in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. Jaraiz go into this one as the clear favorite. Jaraiz have averaged 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded recently, against Guadiana's 0.4 scored and 2.2 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. xG projections (1.41 - 0.96) back Jaraiz to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Jaraiz
20%
Draws
16%
Guadiana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jaraiz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Jaraiz lately — more wins on the board than Guadiana.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Jaraiz taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 33.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Jaraiz Clean Sheet 20%
Guadiana Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jaraiz Guadiana
Matches Played 32 5
Wins 10 0
Draws 12 1
Losses 10 4
Goals Scored 1.25 0.4
Goals Conceded 1.19 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.41 0.96
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaraiz 67 / 100
Guadiana 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jaraiz Guadiana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jaraiz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Guadiana has conceded goals in 100% of their last 5 outings.

Jaraiz found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (32 games).

Guadiana lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Solid form: Jaraiz remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Jaraiz VS Guadiana
1.25 Goals Scored 0.29
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.57
75% Over 1.5 57%
50% Over 2.5 29%
38% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Jaraiz

(Home)
04 Oct
Montijo
2 : 0
Jaraiz
27 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 1
SP Villafranca
19 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Jaraiz
13 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 3
Moralo
06 Sept
Jaraiz
2 : 2
Pueblonuevo
Page 1 of 7

Guadiana

(Away)
04 Oct
CD Azuaga
4 : 0
Guadiana
27 Sept
Guadiana
1 : 1
Cabeza del Buey
20 Sept
Montijo
3 : 1
Guadiana
12 Sept
Guadiana
0 : 2
SP Villafranca
06 Sept
AD Llerenense
1 : 0
Guadiana

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Azuaga 5 5 0 0 14:2 15
2 Moralo 5 3 2 0 9:5 11
3 AD Llerenense 4 3 1 0 3:0 10
4 Castuera 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
5 Puebla de la Calzada 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
6 Gevora 5 2 2 1 8:9 8
7 CD Zafra 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
8 Villanovense 5 2 1 2 5:4 7
9 Santa Amalia 5 1 3 1 6:5 6
10 SP Villafranca 5 2 0 3 7:8 6
11 Montijo 5 2 0 3 6:8 6
12 Cabeza del Buey 5 1 2 2 6:6 5
13 Jerez CF 4 1 1 2 4:6 4
14 Jaraiz 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
15 Quintana 4 1 1 2 2:5 4
16 Pueblonuevo 5 0 3 2 5:10 3
17 UP Plasencia 4 0 1 3 2:8 1
18 Guadiana 5 0 1 4 2:11 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 (Play Offs)