Sport Picks

Poland

III Liga - Group IV 2017/2018

Chelmianka Chelm

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Jaroslaw play Chelmianka Chelm in the III Liga - Group IV 2017/2018. It looks like a close match. Recently, Jaroslaw averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. Chelmianka Chelm averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. In past meetings, Jaroslaw won 2, Chelmianka Chelm won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 9, 2018 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.97 for Jaroslaw and 1.68 for Chelmianka Chelm. This points to a Jaroslaw double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Jaroslaw

15%

Draws

41%

Chelmianka Chelm

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jaroslaw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence

Jaroslaw picked up more points recently compared to Chelmianka Chelm.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.97 vs 1.68 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Jaroslaw Clean Sheet 13%

Chelmianka Chelm Clean Sheet 15%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Jaroslaw	Chelmianka Chelm
Matches Played	26	29
Wins	15	16
Draws	4	7
Losses	7	6
Goals Scored	1.62	1.86
Goals Conceded	1.23	1.03

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 9, 2018 III Liga - Group IV

Jaroslaw vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 49% - 44% Cards: 4 - 2

2:1

Nov 10, 2017 III Liga - Group IV

Chelmianka Chelm vs Jaroslaw

Possession: 58% - 40% Cards: 1 - 3

3:0

Apr 24, 2016 III Liga - Group VIII

Chelmianka Chelm vs Jaroslaw

Possession: 50% - 55% Cards: 3 - 1

2:3

Sep 12, 2015 III Liga - Group VIII

Jaroslaw vs Chelmianka Chelm

Possession: 45% - 58% Cards: 3 - 1

0:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jaroslaw 42 / 100

Chelmianka Chelm 40 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Jaroslaw Chelmianka Chelm

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Jaroslaw or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Jaroslaw attacking → ← attacking Chelmianka Chelm

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaroslaw scored in 77% of their last 26 games.

Chelmianka Chelm let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Jaroslaw went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Chelmianka Chelm lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 55

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.25

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	R. Rzeszow	34	23	8	3	61:22	77
2	Motor Lublin	34	22	5	7	70:29	71
3	Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski	34	18	10	6	50:31	64
4	Chelmianka Chelm	34	18	8	8	56:29	62
5	Podhale Nowy Targ	34	16	8	10	59:43	56
6	S. Rzeszow	34	16	7	11	56:40	55
7	Wolczanka Wolka Pelkinska	34	16	7	11	56:42	55
8	Wislanie Skawina	34	13	9	12	52:56	48
9	Orleta Radzyn	34	12	10	12	45:47	46
10	Avia Swidnik	34	10	11	13	55:49	41
11	Sola Oswiecim	34	10	7	17	39:59	37
12	Spartakus Daleszyce	34	10	6	18	39:55	36
13	Biala Podlaska	34	7	15	12	40:52	36
14	Sandomierz	34	10	6	18	30:46	36
15	Jaroslaw	34	10	5	19	39:64	35
16	Unia Tarnow	34	9	8	17	48:70	35
17	Trzebinia Siersza	34	6	9	19	35:63	27
18	KS Karpaty Krosno	34	6	9	19	27:60	27