Sport Picks
Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils
Latvia
Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava 
Match Events
61'
61'
Semesko M.
63'
63'
Hasek F.
Assist: Melkis R.
64'
64'
Sub
Sylla M. In: Pinaskins E.
Out: Sylla M.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
30%
16%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Jelgava
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- BFC Daugavpils have won more games recently than Jelgava.
- Jelgava are the model's pick here, at 60%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 15%
BFC Daugavpils Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Jelgava | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 7 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 16 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.3 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.63 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 1, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Jelgava
2:1
May 31, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils
1:1
Apr 16, 2026 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Jelgava
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 Virsliga
Jelgava vs BFC Daugavpils
0:0
Jul 27, 2025 Virsliga
BFC Daugavpils vs Jelgava
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Jelgava Compare
Top Goalscorer Hasek F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
BFC Daugavpils Compare
Top Goalscorer Ndjiki R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Jelgava 57 / 100
BFC Daugavpils 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Jelgava BFC Daugavpils
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Jelgava Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
BFC Daugavpils has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.
Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.
Jelgava went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
BFC Daugavpils's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Jelgava VS BFC Daugavpils
1 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Jelgava
(Home) 19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1 Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0 Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1 Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4 Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3 Jelgava
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1 Riga FC
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1 Super Nova
09 Aug
Jelgava
0 : 1 FK Auda Riga
26 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 2 FK Liepaja
20 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 1 RFS
Page 1 of 3
BFC Daugavpils
(Away) 19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
13 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 2 RFS
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1 BFC Daugavpils
02 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 3 FK Auda Riga
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1 BFC Daugavpils
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
26 Jul
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0 BFC Daugavpils
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 71:22 | 74 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 86:30 | 73 |
| 3 | FK Auda Riga | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 49:30 | 61 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 41:43 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 35:35 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 29:40 | 35 |
| 7 | Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | 32:49 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobina | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 21:52 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 44:61 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 30:76 | 18 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)
