Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jelgava vs Grobina

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
Jelgava Logo

Jelgava

2 - 0
FT
Grobina Logo

Grobina

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Becers R.
Assist: Patika G.
46'
Sub
Olatunde-Matthew O. In: Dobrecovs D.
Out: Olatunde-Matthew O.
46'
Sub
Kholod A. In: Krautmanis J.
Out: Kholod A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Jelgava in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jelgava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Jelgava
15%
Draws
85%
Grobina
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Grobina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

0% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Jelgava at 0.9 per game, Grobina at 0.79.
  • 0% — that's where the model lands on Jelgava taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 68%
Grobina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava Grobina
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 6 6
Draws 7 9
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 0.9 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 29, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Grobina
2:0
May 11, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs Jelgava
0:0
Mar 21, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Grobina
0:1
Aug 29, 2025 Virsliga
Grobina vs Jelgava
3:2
Jun 22, 2025 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Grobina
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Top Goalscorer Becers R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Grobina Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 68 / 100
Grobina 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava Grobina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jelgava Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Grobina conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Grobina has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Jelgava's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS Grobina
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
09 Aug
Jelgava
0 : 1
FK Auda Riga
01 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 1
Jelgava
26 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 2
FK Liepaja
20 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 1
RFS
12 Jul
RFS
2 : 0
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

Grobina

(Away)
10 Aug
RFS
6 : 1
Grobina
02 Aug
Riga FC
4 : 0
Grobina
27 Jul
Grobina
2 : 2
Ogre United
20 Jul
Super Nova
2 : 0
Grobina
12 Jul
Marupe
0 : 1
Grobina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 25 21 2 2 62:17 65
2 Riga FC 25 20 4 1 76:21 64
3 FK Auda Riga 24 14 4 6 39:26 46
4 BFC Daugavpils 26 10 6 10 33:31 36
5 FK Liepaja 25 10 4 11 33:37 34
6 Super Nova 24 8 3 13 26:37 27
7 Jelgava 26 6 7 13 25:44 25
8 Grobina 26 4 9 13 18:47 21
9 Tukums 2000 26 4 8 14 40:51 20
10 Ogre United 25 3 5 17 24:65 14
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)