Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jelgava vs Grobina

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
Jelgava Logo

Jelgava

2 - 0
FT
Grobina Logo

Grobina

Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Becers R.
Assist: Patika G.
46'
Sub
Olatunde-Matthew O. In: Dobrecovs D.
Out: Olatunde-Matthew O.
46'
Sub
Kholod A. In: Krautmanis J.
Out: Kholod A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Jelgava in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jelgava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Jelgava
30%
Draws
29%
Grobina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Jelgava

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Grobina haven't matched Jelgava's recent run of results.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Jelgava taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 68%
Grobina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava Grobina
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 7 10
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 1 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs Jelgava
0:0
Jun 29, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Grobina
2:0
May 11, 2026 Virsliga
Grobina vs Jelgava
0:0
Mar 21, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Grobina
0:1
Aug 29, 2025 Virsliga
Grobina vs Jelgava
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Top Goalscorer Becers R.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Grobina Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 68 / 100
Grobina 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava Grobina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jelgava Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Grobina conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Jelgava remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Jelgava's goal record stands at 48% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS Grobina
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

Grobina

(Away)
20 Sept
Tukums 2000
1 : 1
Grobina
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
06 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Grobina
29 Aug
Grobina
1 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
21 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 1
Grobina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)