Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jelgava vs Super Nova

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, Jelgava
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Garcia F.
36'
Zaleiko G.
41'
Sub
Emsis E. In: Glaudans A.
Out: Emsis E.

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between Jelgava and Super Nova finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jelgava.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Jelgava
15%
Draws
59%
Super Nova
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Super Nova

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Jelgava haven't matched Super Nova's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Super Nova's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 18%
Super Nova Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jelgava Super Nova
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 9
Draws 7 5
Losses 15 15
Goals Scored 0.97 1
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 25, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Jelgava
1:5
May 6, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Super Nova
1:0
Mar 15, 2026 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Jelgava
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Virsliga
Super Nova vs Jelgava
1:1
Jul 20, 2025 Virsliga
Jelgava vs Super Nova
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jelgava Compare

Top Goalscorer Hasek F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Super Nova Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jelgava 28 / 100
Super Nova 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jelgava Super Nova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Super Nova Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Super Nova's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Jelgava's goal record stands at 52% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Jelgava went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jelgava VS Super Nova
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Jelgava

(Home)
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
09 Aug
Jelgava
0 : 1
FK Auda Riga
01 Aug
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 1
Jelgava
26 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 2
FK Liepaja
20 Jul
Jelgava
0 : 1
RFS
Page 1 of 6

Super Nova

(Away)
22 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
16 Aug
Super Nova
0 : 1
RFS
09 Aug
Super Nova
1 : 2
FK Liepaja
20 Jul
Super Nova
2 : 0
Grobina
11 Jul
Tukums 2000
1 : 2
Super Nova
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 25 21 2 2 62:17 65
2 Riga FC 25 20 4 1 76:21 64
3 FK Auda Riga 25 15 4 6 42:26 49
4 BFC Daugavpils 27 10 7 10 33:31 37
5 FK Liepaja 26 11 4 11 36:38 37
6 Jelgava 27 7 7 13 28:46 28
7 Super Nova 25 8 4 13 26:37 28
8 Grobina 27 4 9 14 19:50 21
9 Tukums 2000 27 4 8 15 40:54 20
10 Ogre United 26 3 5 18 26:68 14
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)