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Jena vs Erfurt Prediction & H2H Stats

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Nordost
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Lankford K.
50' Event
Gonda H.
76' Event
Hajrulla R.

AI Match Summary

Erfurt in this Regionalliga Nordost matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Erfurt.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Jena
20%
Draws
44%
Erfurt
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Erfurt

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Erfurt at 2.73 per game, Jena at 2.38.
  • Win probability leans Erfurt's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Jena Clean Sheet 10%
Erfurt Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jena Erfurt
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 18 18
Draws 3 7
Losses 8 5
Goals Scored 2.38 2.73
Goals Conceded 1 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Regionalliga Nordost
Jena vs Erfurt
1:2
May 16, 2026 Regionalliga Nordost
Jena vs Erfurt
2:0
Nov 28, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Jena
3:1
Apr 8, 2025 Regionalliga Nordost
Erfurt vs Jena
3:1
Sep 4, 2024 Regionalliga Nordost
Jena vs Erfurt
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jena Compare

Top Goalscorer Lankford K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Erfurt Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonda H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hajrulla R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jena 18 / 100
Erfurt 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jena Erfurt

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Erfurt Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jena found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Erfurt's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Jena went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jena VS Erfurt
1.5 Goals Scored 3.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Jena

(Home)
25 Sept
SV Tasmania Berlin
1 : 5
Jena
20 Sept
Jena
1 : 2
Lokomotive Leipzig
15 Sept
Hallescher
2 : 0
Jena
12 Sept
Jena
3 : 0
Hertha Berlin II
02 Sept
Jena
1 : 0
Altglienicke
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Erfurt

(Away)
26 Sept
Lokomotive Leipzig
3 : 4
Erfurt
19 Sept
Erfurt
2 : 2
Aue
15 Sept
Hertha Berlin II
1 : 2
Erfurt
11 Sept
Erfurt
5 : 0
Rsv Eintracht
29 Aug
Erfurt
1 : 1
BFC Preussen
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Erfurt 11 8 3 0 36:11 27
2 Chemnitzer 11 8 2 1 25:5 26
3 Hallescher 11 6 4 1 18:9 22
4 BFC Dynamo 11 6 3 2 20:12 21
5 Altglienicke 11 6 3 2 20:14 21
6 Aue 11 6 3 2 20:16 21
7 Jena 11 6 1 4 19:10 19
8 Greifswalder FC 11 5 4 2 23:16 19
9 Lokomotive Leipzig 11 4 3 4 23:23 15
10 Zwickau 11 4 3 4 13:17 15
11 Magdeburg II 11 4 1 6 20:23 13
12 Babelsberg 11 3 3 5 14:17 12
13 BFC Preussen 11 2 4 5 14:17 10
14 Chemie Leipzig 11 2 3 6 12:17 9
15 Hertha Berlin II 11 2 3 6 9:21 9
16 Rsv Eintracht 11 1 3 7 13:29 6
17 SV Tasmania Berlin 11 1 2 8 13:36 5
18 Luckenwalde 11 1 0 10 9:28 3
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)