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Stadium Background

Jerez CF vs Montehermoso

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Espinar C.
24' Event
Garrido D.
57' Event
Chavez C.

AI Match Summary

Jerez CF in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 5-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Jerez CF.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Jerez CF
20%
Draws
10%
Montehermoso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Jerez CF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Jerez CF have won more games recently than Montehermoso.
  • Win probability leans Jerez CF's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Jerez CF Clean Sheet 14%
Montehermoso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jerez CF Montehermoso
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 13 7
Losses 8 18
Goals Scored 1.77 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.45 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs Montehermoso
5:1
Jan 11, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Jerez CF
1:1
Mar 31, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Jerez CF vs Montehermoso
2:1
Nov 12, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Jerez CF
2:0
Feb 5, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Montehermoso vs Jerez CF
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jerez CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Roldan J.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Espinar C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Montehermoso Compare

Top Goalscorer Garrido D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jerez CF 84 / 100
Montehermoso 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jerez CF Montehermoso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jerez CF Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jerez CF's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Montehermoso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Jerez CF went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jerez CF VS Montehermoso
1.25 Goals Scored 0.75
2.5 Goals Conceded 2.75
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Jerez CF

(Home)
20 Sept
Jerez CF
1 : 2
Castuera
13 Sept
Cabeza del Buey
0 : 1
Jerez CF
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2
Puebla de la Calzada
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
03 May
SP Villafranca
2 : 1
Jerez CF
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Montehermoso

(Away)
10 May
Jerez CF
5 : 1
Montehermoso
03 May
Montehermoso
0 : 3
Villanovense
26 Apr
Cabeza del Buey
2 : 1
Montehermoso
19 Apr
Montehermoso
2 : 2
AD Llerenense
12 Apr
CD Badajoz
4 : 0
Montehermoso
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Don Benito 34 21 8 5 70:22 71
2 CD Badajoz 34 23 5 6 64:27 71
3 Moralo 34 17 11 6 54:32 62
4 CD Azuaga 34 18 8 8 53:31 62
5 Jaraiz 34 16 11 7 53:33 59
6 Cabeza del Buey 34 15 12 7 45:29 57
7 SP Villafranca 34 16 7 11 45:40 55
8 Villanovense 34 15 8 11 45:36 53
9 Montijo 34 13 7 14 43:42 46
10 Jerez CF 34 8 17 9 56:51 41
11 AD Llerenense 34 11 8 15 35:44 41
12 Puebla de la Calzada 34 9 11 14 35:48 38
13 Santa Amalia 34 9 7 18 30:52 34
14 Gevora 34 8 9 17 32:53 33
15 Pueblonuevo 34 9 6 19 29:55 33
16 CD Diocesano 34 6 12 16 33:63 30
17 Montehermoso 34 5 8 21 24:66 23
18 CD Calamonte 34 3 13 18 25:47 22
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2025/2026 (Play Offs)