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JFK Ventspils vs FK Smiltene - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

1. Liga
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Gaismins V.
14' Event
Liepajnieks V.
41' Event
Liepajnieks V.
Penalty Missed

AI Match Summary

FK Smiltene in this 1. Liga matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Smiltene.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
JFK Ventspils
15%
Draws
64%
FK Smiltene
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Smiltene

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FK Smiltene lately — more wins on the board than JFK Ventspils.
  • Win probability leans FK Smiltene's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular 1. Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
JFK Ventspils Clean Sheet 10%
FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric JFK Ventspils FK Smiltene
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 5 7
Draws 8 6
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 1.03 1.59
Goals Conceded 1.9 2.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 1. Liga
JFK Ventspils vs FK Smiltene
1:2
Mar 28, 2026 1. Liga
FK Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils
3:3
Sep 20, 2025 1. Liga
FK Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils
2:2
May 11, 2025 1. Liga
JFK Ventspils vs FK Smiltene
2:1
Aug 31, 2024 1. Liga
FK Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

JFK Ventspils Compare

Top Goalscorer Liepajnieks V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

FK Smiltene Compare

Top Goalscorer Gaismins V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rams R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

JFK Ventspils 10 / 100
FK Smiltene 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
JFK Ventspils FK Smiltene

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Smiltene Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Smiltene's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

JFK Ventspils found the back of the net in 66% of recent matches (29 games).

JFK Ventspils has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

JFK Ventspils VS FK Smiltene
0.63 Goals Scored 1.88
2.25 Goals Conceded 3
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

JFK Ventspils

(Home)
10 Oct
JFK Ventspils
0 : 4
Leevon PPK
26 Sept
Tukums 2000 2
1 : 0
JFK Ventspils
20 Sept
JFK Ventspils
1 : 0
Skanste
12 Sept
FK Metta
7 : 0
JFK Ventspils
05 Sept
RFS 2
4 : 1
JFK Ventspils
Page 1 of 6

FK Smiltene

(Away)
11 Oct
FK Smiltene
3 : 2
Tukums 2000 2
19 Sept
Super Nova 2
0 : 2
FK Smiltene
12 Sept
FK Smiltene
4 : 1
Riga Mariners
05 Sept
Alberts JDFS
3 : 2
FK Smiltene
29 Aug
FK Smiltene
0 : 6
FK Metta
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Metta 22 18 3 1 93:17 57
2 Valmiera 22 16 4 2 61:24 52
3 Leevon PPK 22 16 4 2 47:25 52
4 Riga Mariners 22 14 5 3 50:27 47
5 Alberts JDFS 22 12 4 6 44:31 40
6 Marupe 22 10 2 10 37:34 32
7 Riga FC 2 21 7 5 9 29:37 26
8 Skanste 22 8 2 12 43:44 26
9 Super Nova 2 22 6 8 8 29:33 26
10 Tukums 2000 2 21 5 3 13 27:60 18
11 FK Smiltene 21 4 4 13 29:57 16
12 RFS 2 22 4 3 15 36:65 15
13 JFK Ventspils 22 3 6 13 21:45 15
14 Rezekne 21 1 3 17 17:64 6
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