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Joinville vs Fluminense-SC

Brazil Brazil

Copa Santa Catarina 2018
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AI Match Summary

This match ends 4-1, with Joinville advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Joinville
20%
Draws
40%
Fluminense-SC
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Fluminense-SC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Joinville's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Fluminense-SC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Fluminense-SC, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Joinville Clean Sheet 20%
Fluminense-SC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Joinville Fluminense-SC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 10
Draws 5 7
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 0.9 1
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 19, 2019 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Fluminense-SC
1:3
Sep 14, 2019 Copa Santa Catarina
Fluminense-SC vs Joinville
1:1
Oct 15, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Fluminense-SC
4:1
Sep 30, 2018 Copa Santa Catarina
Fluminense-SC vs Joinville
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Joinville 49 / 100
Fluminense-SC 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Joinville Fluminense-SC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Joinville Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fluminense-SC has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Joinville has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Joinville found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Joinville VS Fluminense-SC
1 Goals Scored 0.63
1.17 Goals Conceded 1.5
50% Over 1.5 38%
33% Over 2.5 25%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Joinville

(Home)
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0
Blumenau
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2
Joinville
07 Jun
Sao Luiz
3 : 1
Joinville
30 May
Joinville
2 : 0
Guarany de Bage
23 May
Joinville
0 : 0
Cianorte
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Fluminense-SC

(Away)
25 Jul
CA Metropolitano
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
22 Jul
Fluminense-SC
2 : 1
Tubarao
19 Jul
Gremio Juventus
3 : 0
Fluminense-SC
15 Jul
Fluminense-SC
1 : 1
Guarani de Palhoca
12 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2
Fluminense-SC
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Hercilio Luz 10 9 0 1 26:5 27
2 Figueirense 10 6 2 2 20:12 20
3 Joinville 10 4 4 2 19:15 16
4 Fluminense-SC 10 2 3 5 10:16 9
5 CA Metropolitano 10 2 2 6 11:16 8
6 Blumenau 10 0 3 7 6:28 3
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2018 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Brusque 10 8 1 1 20:6 25
2 Tubarao 10 5 5 0 13:4 20
3 Marcilio Dias 10 5 3 2 19:6 18
4 Almirante Barroso 10 4 2 4 13:11 14
5 Inter de Lages 10 2 1 7 12:13 7
6 Operario Mafra 10 0 0 10 4:41 0
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina 2018 (Play Offs)