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Joinville vs Gremio Juventus

Brazil Brazil

Copa Santa Catarina 2025
Wed, Oct 1, 2025
VS
11:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Joinville host Gremio Juventus in the Copa Santa Catarina 2025. Little to choose between these two on current form. Joinville have averaged 0.6 scored and 1 conceded recently, against Gremio Juventus's 0.25 scored and 1.25 conceded. Past meetings favor Joinville slightly — 2-0-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Oct 1, 2025, ending 0:0. xG projections (0.93 - 0.63) back Joinville to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Joinville
33%
Draws
40%
Gremio Juventus
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Gremio Juventus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Joinville come out ahead of Gremio Juventus on wins alone.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Gremio Juventus taking it.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 10%
Over 4.5 Goals 5%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Joinville Clean Sheet 20%
Gremio Juventus Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Joinville Gremio Juventus
Matches Played 30 20
Wins 8 6
Draws 6 4
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.6 0.25
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.60 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Gremio Juventus
0:0
Sep 21, 2025 Copa Santa Catarina
Gremio Juventus vs Joinville
0:0
Feb 17, 2022 Catarinense
Joinville vs Gremio Juventus
1:1
Oct 16, 2021 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Gremio Juventus
2:1
Aug 21, 2021 Serie D
Gremio Juventus vs Joinville
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Joinville 28 / 100
Gremio Juventus 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Joinville Gremio Juventus

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Gremio Juventus conceded in 70% of 20 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Joinville scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 1.20 goals as a typical output.

Joinville has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Joinville VS Gremio Juventus
0.6 Goals Scored 0.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
40% Over 1.5 38%
20% Over 2.5 13%
20% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Figueirense642016:614
2Marcilio Dias641123:513
3Avai61144:164
4Barra FC (Santa Catarina)61054:203
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Santa Catarina651013:316
2Chapecoense-SC61414:67
3Brusque61235:65
4Concordia61144:114
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Blumenau641113:613
2Joinville63127:610
3Carlos Renaux61328:96
4Nacao60332:93
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Criciuma642015:514
2Tubarao62225:68
3Caravaggio62045:116
4Camboriu61236:95