Sport Picks
Match Events
11'
11'
Kauan
22'
22'
de Melo Silva J. C.
33'
33'
Yann Rolim
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-3. The second leg ended 1-3.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
32%
15%
53%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Hercilio Luz
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
53%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Hercilio Luz come out ahead of Joinville on wins alone.
- Win probability leans Hercilio Luz's way, sitting at 90%.
- Hercilio Luz arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Hercilio Luz, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Hercilio Luz have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Joinville Clean Sheet 10%
Hercilio Luz Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Joinville | Hercilio Luz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 8 | 16 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 18 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1 | 1.72 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.53 | 1.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.96 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Hercilio Luz
1:3
Feb 13, 2025 Catarinense
Hercilio Luz vs Joinville
2:1
Oct 19, 2024 Copa Santa Catarina
Joinville vs Hercilio Luz
1:2
Feb 2, 2024 Catarinense
Hercilio Luz vs Joinville
1:1
Oct 22, 2023 Copa Santa Catarina
Hercilio Luz vs Joinville
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Joinville Compare
Top Goalscorer Yann Rolim
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Hercilio Luz Compare
Top Goalscorer Kauan
1 Goals Assists Leader de Melo Silva J. C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.09
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Joinville 10 / 100
Hercilio Luz 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Joinville Hercilio Luz
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Hercilio Luz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Joinville's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Defensive concern: Hercilio Luz conceded in 66% of 29 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.60 goals.
Solid form: Joinville remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Joinville VS Hercilio Luz
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
1.67 Goals Conceded 0.75
67% Over 1.5 88%
67% Over 2.5 63%
67% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Joinville
(Home) 19 Sept
Nacao
0 : 4 Joinville
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3 Hercilio Luz
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0 Blumenau
30 Aug
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Joinville
07 Jun
Sao Luiz
3 : 1 Joinville
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3 Hercilio Luz
05 Sept
Joinville
1 : 0 Blumenau
30 May
Joinville
2 : 0 Guarany de Bage
23 May
Joinville
0 : 0 Cianorte
02 May
Joinville
1 : 1 FC Cascavel
Page 1 of 3
Hercilio Luz
(Away) 19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3 Hercilio Luz
30 Aug
Hercilio Luz
4 : 2 CA Metropolitano
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2 Hercilio Luz
22 Jul
Hercilio Luz
0 : 0 Caravaggio
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Marcilio Dias
4 : 2 Hercilio Luz
12 Sept
Joinville
1 : 3 Hercilio Luz
25 Jul
Nacao
1 : 2 Hercilio Luz
19 Jul
Tubarao
0 : 2 Hercilio Luz
12 Jul
Blumenau
0 : 2 Hercilio Luz
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcilio Dias | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:8 | 9 |
| 2 | Figueirense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 3 | Santa Catarina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 4 | Hercilio Luz | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:7 | 6 |
| 5 | Joinville | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:7 | 6 |
| 6 | CA Metropolitano | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:9 | 3 |
| 7 | Barra FC (Santa Catarina) | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 8 | Blumenau | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2:5 | 1 |
| 9 | Nacao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:7 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Santa Catarina (Play Offs)
