Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Ouder-Amstel
Our Tip

Match Events

41'
de Falco S.
62'
Sub
Varela K. In: Misidjan V.
Out: Varela K.
62'
Sub
Fage R. In: van der Veen Y.
Out: Fage R.

AI Match Summary

The Eerste Divisie game between Jong Ajax and Waalwijk finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Waalwijk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
Jong Ajax
35%
Draws
37%
Waalwijk
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Waalwijk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Waalwijk come out ahead of Jong Ajax on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Waalwijk's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Eerste Divisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Waalwijk have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Jong Ajax Clean Sheet 10%
Waalwijk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jong Ajax Waalwijk
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 9 13
Draws 3 14
Losses 17 6
Goals Scored 1.34 1.82
Goals Conceded 2.17 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk
0:2
Dec 22, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk
0:2
Sep 29, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax
2:1
Jan 18, 2019 Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk vs Jong Ajax
4:1
Oct 19, 2018 Eerste Divisie
Jong Ajax vs Waalwijk
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jong Ajax Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Waalwijk Compare

Top Goalscorer Misidjan V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader van der Veen Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jong Ajax 10 / 100
Waalwijk 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jong Ajax Waalwijk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waalwijk Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jong Ajax's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Waalwijk's defensive record shows goals conceded in 79% of 33 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Jong Ajax went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Jong Ajax VS Waalwijk
1.63 Goals Scored 1
2.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Jong Ajax

(Home)
14 Sept
Jong Utrecht
6 : 1
Jong Ajax
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Almere City
0 : 1
Jong Ajax
31 Aug
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong Ajax
28 Aug
Jong Ajax
3 : 2
Helmond Sport
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Waalwijk

(Away)
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Waalwijk
4 : 2
NAC Breda
28 Aug
Waalwijk
2 : 2
Jong PSV
21 Aug
Helmond Sport
1 : 1
Waalwijk
14 Aug
Waalwijk
2 : 2
Dordrecht
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 7 6 0 1 24:10 18
2 Almere City 7 5 1 1 16:4 16
3 Venlo 7 5 0 2 19:11 15
4 Waalwijk 7 3 4 0 18:9 13
5 Maastricht 7 4 1 2 10:15 13
6 Jong AZ Alkmaar 9 4 1 4 22:17 13
7 Roda 7 3 3 1 7:5 12
8 FC Emmen 7 4 0 3 17:17 12
9 Jong PSV 8 3 3 2 13:13 12
10 Vitesse 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
11 Eindhoven FC 7 3 1 3 11:13 10
12 FC Volendam 7 3 0 4 17:14 9
13 Helmond Sport 7 2 2 3 13:12 8
14 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 13:22 8
15 NAC Breda 6 2 1 3 11:14 7
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 12:16 7
17 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 15:21 7
18 TOP Oss 7 2 0 5 8:12 6
19 De Graafschap 6 1 1 4 7:18 4
20 Dordrecht 7 1 1 5 9:21 4
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)