Sport Picks

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Jong Excelsior vs Jong Dordrecht

Netherlands Netherlands

Reserve League 2019/2020
Tue, Apr 28, 2020
VS
04:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Jong Excelsior host Jong Dordrecht in the Reserve League 2019/2020. Jong Excelsior go into this one as the clear favorite. Recent numbers: Jong Excelsior at 2.65 goals for, 2.15 against; Jong Dordrecht at 1.12 for, 3.62 against. Head-to-head, Jong Excelsior have won 2 to Jong Dordrecht's 0, with 2 draws. They last met on Apr 28, 2020, ending 0:0. xG projections (2.94 - 1.25) back Jong Excelsior to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Jong Excelsior
15%
Draws
0%
Jong Dordrecht
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Jong Excelsior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Jong Excelsior have won more games recently than Jong Dordrecht.
  • Jong Excelsior are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Reserve League 2019/2020 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Jong Excelsior Clean Sheet 19%
Jong Dordrecht Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jong Excelsior Jong Dordrecht
Matches Played 26 26
Wins 14 1
Draws 2 4
Losses 10 21
Goals Scored 2.65 1.12
Goals Conceded 2.15 3.62
Expected Goals (xG) 2.94 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 28, 2020 Reserve League
Jong Excelsior vs Jong Dordrecht
0:0
Nov 25, 2019 Reserve League
Jong Excelsior vs Jong Dordrecht
3:2
May 7, 2019 Reserve League
Jong Excelsior vs Jong Dordrecht
4:1
Aug 20, 2018 Reserve League
Jong Excelsior vs Jong Dordrecht
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jong Excelsior 85 / 100
Jong Dordrecht 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jong Excelsior Jong Dordrecht

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jong Excelsior Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jong Excelsior found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (26 games).

Jong Dordrecht's defensive record shows goals conceded in 100% of 26 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Away concern: Jong Dordrecht has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Jong Excelsior VS Jong Dordrecht
2.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 3.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Jong Excelsior

(Home)
29 Jul
Katwijk
3 : 2
Jong Excelsior
10 Mar
Jong Cambuur
3 : 4
Jong Excelsior
02 Mar
Jong Excelsior
3 : 2
Jong Sittard
17 Feb
Jong FC Emmen
4 : 1
Jong Excelsior
03 Feb
Jong Excelsior
3 : 2
Jong Den Bosch
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Jong Dordrecht

(Away)
11 Aug
Jong Feyenoord
5 : 0
Jong Dordrecht
09 Mar
Jong De Graafschap
11 : 0
Jong Dordrecht
02 Mar
Jong Dordrecht
2 : 4
Jong Cambuur
17 Feb
Jong Sittard
2 : 0
Jong Dordrecht
10 Feb
Jong Dordrecht
2 : 3
Jong FC Eindhoven
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