Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Jong PSV vs Venlo

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 De Herdgang, Eindhoven
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Sidibe S.
46'
Sub
Kluit F. In: Beerens J.
Out: Kluit F.
52' Event
Jones A.
Assist: Sidibe S.

AI Match Summary

The Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 game between Jong PSV and Venlo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jong PSV.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Jong PSV
20%
Draws
56%
Venlo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Venlo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Venlo haven't matched Jong PSV's recent run of results.
  • 56% — that's where the model lands on Venlo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Jong PSV Clean Sheet 10%
Venlo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Jong PSV Venlo
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.57 1.83
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Jong PSV vs Venlo
1:0
Aug 15, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs Jong PSV
0:2
Jan 27, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong PSV vs Venlo
1:2
Sep 20, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs Jong PSV
0:2
Feb 2, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Venlo vs Jong PSV
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Jong PSV Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Venlo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Jong PSV 10 / 100
Venlo 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Jong PSV Venlo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Venlo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Jong PSV scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Venlo conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Jong PSV remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Jong PSV VS Venlo
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Jong PSV

(Home)
19 Sept
Vitesse
3 : 1
Jong PSV
14 Sept
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
Helmond Sport
3 : 1
Jong PSV
07 Sept
Jong PSV
3 : 1
Den Bosch
31 Aug
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong Ajax
Page 1 of 6

Venlo

(Away)
18 Sept
Jong Utrecht
1 : 3
Venlo
11 Sept
Venlo
3 : 1
TOP Oss
04 Sept
Helmond Sport
4 : 2
Venlo
30 Aug
Venlo
4 : 0
FC Emmen
23 Aug
Venlo
2 : 1
De Graafschap
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Den Haag 38 29 2 7 90:37 89
2 Cambuur 38 23 9 6 75:48 78
3 Willem II 38 20 8 10 59:42 68
4 De Graafschap 38 18 9 11 74:58 63
5 Almere City 38 18 4 16 78:63 58
6 Waalwijk 38 16 10 12 71:59 58
7 Jong PSV 38 17 5 16 66:64 56
8 Roda 38 14 13 11 59:54 55
9 Den Bosch 38 14 9 15 65:69 51
10 Dordrecht 38 12 11 15 48:56 47
11 Eindhoven FC 38 14 5 19 51:69 47
12 Jong Utrecht 38 12 10 16 58:62 46
13 Venlo 38 13 6 19 50:58 45
14 FC Emmen 38 12 9 17 58:72 45
15 Vitesse 38 15 11 12 64:55 44
16 TOP Oss 38 11 11 16 54:64 44
17 Jong AZ Alkmaar 38 12 4 22 61:76 40
18 Helmond Sport 38 10 9 19 42:62 39
19 Maastricht 38 9 11 18 41:73 38
20 Jong Ajax 38 9 8 21 50:73 35
Promotion - Eredivisie (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)