Sport Picks

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Juv. Evora vs Serpa

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

72' Event
Aquino

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 game between Juv. Evora and Serpa finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Serpa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

69%
Juv. Evora
15%
Draws
16%
Serpa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Juv. Evora

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Serpa haven't matched Juv. Evora's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Juv. Evora's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Juv. Evora Clean Sheet 68%
Serpa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Juv. Evora Serpa
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 11
Draws 10 7
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 1.43 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs Juv. Evora
0:3
Nov 29, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Juv. Evora vs Serpa
0:1
Jan 7, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Serpa vs Juv. Evora
1:0
Aug 20, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Juv. Evora vs Serpa
2:0
Mar 12, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Juv. Evora vs Serpa
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Juv. Evora Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Serpa Compare

Top Goalscorer Aquino
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Juv. Evora 95 / 100
Serpa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Juv. Evora Serpa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Juv. Evora Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Juv. Evora scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Juv. Evora has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Serpa let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Difficult form: Serpa registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Juv. Evora VS Serpa
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Juv. Evora

(Home)
16 Aug
Juv. Evora
3 : 2
GD Alcochetense
18 Apr
Juv. Evora
4 : 1
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
12 Apr
Moncarapachense
0 : 1
Juv. Evora
04 Apr
Juv. Evora
1 : 1
Industria
22 Mar
Serpa
0 : 3
Juv. Evora
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Serpa

(Away)
16 Aug
Serpa
4 : 2
Vitoria Setubal
18 Apr
Oriental
2 : 1
Serpa
12 Apr
Serpa
0 : 1
Alverca B
04 Apr
O Elvas CAD
3 : 2
Serpa
22 Mar
Serpa
0 : 3
Juv. Evora
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)