Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Juventud de Bernal vs Provincial

Argentina Argentina

Torneo Promocional Amateur
Tue, Jul 14, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Juventud de Bernal play Provincial in the Torneo Promocional Amateur. It looks like a close match. Recently, Juventud de Bernal averaged 0.76 goals scored and 1.86 conceded. Provincial averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.52 conceded. In past meetings, Juventud de Bernal won 1, Provincial won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Sep 8, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for Juventud de Bernal and 1.44 for Provincial. This points to a Provincial double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Juventud de Bernal
32%
Draws
43%
Provincial
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Provincial

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Juventud de Bernal picked up more points recently compared to Provincial.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 74%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Juventud de Bernal Clean Sheet 16%
Provincial Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 67%
Second Half Goal 70%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Juventud de Bernal Provincial
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 4 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 0.76 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 8, 2025 Torneo Promocional Amateur
Provincial vs Juventud de Bernal
1:1
Aug 17, 2025 Torneo Promocional Amateur
Juventud de Bernal vs Provincial
2:1
Sep 3, 2024 Torneo Promocional Amateur
Provincial vs Juventud de Bernal
1:0
Apr 9, 2024 Torneo Promocional Amateur
Juventud de Bernal vs Provincial
2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Juventud de Bernal 26 / 100
Provincial 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Juventud de Bernal Provincial

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Provincial or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Juventud de Bernal attacking → ← attacking Provincial

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Juventud de Bernal scored in 48% of their last 29 games.

Provincial let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.50 goals.

Juventud de Bernal went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Provincial lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 32
0.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.38
2.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Deportivo Metalurgico650111:315
2Social Atletico Television65017:215
3Nautico Hacoaj63217:311
4Defensores de Glew631214:710
5Estrella de Berisso62226:68
6Provincial61143:94
7Atletico Pilar61054:113
8Juventud de Bernal61054:153
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Barrancas85129:616
2Uribelarrea74217:314
3Academia Control Orientado732210:811
4Buenos Aires City72325:49
5Belgrano Zarate72323:39
6Ezeiza72325:69
7Everton La Plata72235:68
8Las Mandarinas72056:116
9Alumni Los Hornos71244:75