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Kaaro Karungi vs Rwenzori Lions - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uganda Uganda

Big League
Tue, Oct 13, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kaaro Karungi host Rwenzori Lions in the Big League. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Kaaro Karungi at 0.82 goals for, 0.93 against; Rwenzori Lions at 0.33 for, 2 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 0.63 vs 0.63, favoring Kaaro Karungi. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Kaaro Karungi
15%
Draws
39%
Rwenzori Lions
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kaaro Karungi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Kaaro Karungi have won more games recently than Rwenzori Lions.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Kaaro Karungi taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58.6%
Kaaro Karungi Clean Sheet 20%
Rwenzori Lions Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kaaro Karungi Rwenzori Lions
Matches Played 28 3
Wins 10 1
Draws 6 0
Losses 12 2
Goals Scored 0.82 0.33
Goals Conceded 0.93 2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kaaro Karungi 42 / 100
Rwenzori Lions 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kaaro Karungi Rwenzori Lions

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rwenzori Lions let in goals in 67% of their last 3 matches.

Attacking prowess: Kaaro Karungi scored in 57% of their last 28 outings.

Kaaro Karungi went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Rwenzori Lions's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Kaaro Karungi VS Rwenzori Lions
0.75 Goals Scored 0.25
1 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 25%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Kaaro Karungi

(Home)
08 Oct
Calvary
2 : 0
Kaaro Karungi
04 Oct
Pakwach Young Stars
3 : 0
Kaaro Karungi
27 Sept
Kaaro Karungi
0 : 1
Paidha Black Angels
06 Jun
Bunyaruguru
0 : 1
Kaaro Karungi
24 May
Kaaro Karungi
1 : 0
Kiyinda Boys
Page 1 of 6

Rwenzori Lions

(Away)
04 Oct
Rwenzori Lions
1 : 0
Iganga United
27 Sept
Catda
2 : 0
Rwenzori Lions
18 Mar
Kampala City
4 : 0
Rwenzori Lions

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paidha Black Angels 2 2 0 0 2:0 6
2 Young Elephant Academy 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Amus College FC 1 1 0 0 3:0 3
4 Pakwach Young Stars 2 1 0 1 3:1 3
5 Kiyinda Boys 2 1 0 1 3:2 3
6 Catda 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
7 SC Volcanoes 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
8 Calvary 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
9 Iganga United 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
10 Rwenzori Lions 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
11 Buwambo United 2 0 1 1 1:4 1
12 Onduparaka 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
13 Kaaro Karungi 3 0 0 3 0:6 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)