Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kagera Sugar vs Simba

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Toure O.
71' Event
Mpanzu E.

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara game between Kagera Sugar and Simba finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Simba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Kagera Sugar
30%
Draws
58%
Simba
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Simba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Simba carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Simba a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligi Kuu Bara form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Simba have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Kagera Sugar Clean Sheet 17%
Simba Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kagera Sugar Simba
Matches Played 30 40
Wins 5 31
Draws 10 8
Losses 15 1
Goals Scored 0.73 2.02
Goals Conceded 1.33 0.42
Expected Goals (xG) 0.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Simba
0:2
Jun 22, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Kagera Sugar
1:0
Dec 21, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Simba
2:5
May 12, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Simba
1:1
Dec 15, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Kagera Sugar
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kagera Sugar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.19
Avg xA / game 0.13

Simba Compare

Top Goalscorer Toure O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mpanzu E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kagera Sugar 23 / 100
Simba 49 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kagera Sugar Simba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Simba Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Kagera Sugar scored in 43% of their last 30 outings.

Simba has conceded goals in 38% of their last 40 outings.

Kagera Sugar went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kagera Sugar VS Simba
0.25 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Kagera Sugar

(Home)
19 Aug
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1
Singida Black Stars
16 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Simba
22 Jun
Simba
1 : 0
Kagera Sugar
18 Jun
Namungo
0 : 0
Kagera Sugar
12 May
Kagera Sugar
0 : 1
Mashujaa
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Simba

(Away)
19 Aug
Pamba
1 : 2
Simba
16 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Simba
12 Aug
Simba
0 : 1
Young Africans
31 Jul
Singida Black Stars
1 : 2
Simba
28 Jul
Jamus
0 : 0
Simba
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Young Africans 3 3 0 0 11:2 9
2 Simba 3 3 0 0 6:2 9
3 Polisi Tanzania 3 2 1 0 4:1 7
4 Azam 3 2 1 0 5:3 7
5 Geita Gold 3 2 0 1 7:3 6
6 Mbeya City 3 2 0 1 4:2 6
7 Namungo 3 2 0 1 3:3 6
8 Singida Black Stars 3 1 1 1 5:3 4
9 Mashujaa 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
10 Fountain Gate 3 1 0 2 1:4 3
11 TRA United 3 0 2 1 3:4 2
12 Pamba 3 0 1 2 3:5 1
13 Dodoma Jiji 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
14 Coastal Union 3 0 1 2 2:6 1
15 Kagera Sugar 3 0 1 2 3:9 1
16 JKT Tanzania 3 0 1 2 1:7 1
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara (Relegation)