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Kagera Sugar vs Simba - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Toure O.
Assist: Gueye L.
46'
Sub
Kagoma Y. In: Maema N.
Out: Kagoma Y.
48'

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara game between Kagera Sugar and Simba finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Simba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Kagera Sugar
15%
Draws
67%
Simba
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Simba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / High Confidence
  • Simba carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Simba a 67% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Ligi Kuu Bara form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Simba have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Kagera Sugar Clean Sheet 13%
Simba Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kagera Sugar Simba
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 5 27
Draws 8 3
Losses 16 1
Goals Scored 0.9 2.19
Goals Conceded 1.66 0.45
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 16, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Simba
0:2
Jun 22, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Kagera Sugar
1:0
Dec 21, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Simba
2:5
May 12, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kagera Sugar vs Simba
1:1
Dec 15, 2023 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Kagera Sugar
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kagera Sugar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Simba Compare

Top Goalscorer Toure O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mpanzu E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kagera Sugar 10 / 100
Simba 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kagera Sugar Simba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Simba Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Kagera Sugar scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Simba has conceded goals in 39% of their last 31 outings.

Kagera Sugar went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kagera Sugar VS Simba
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Kagera Sugar

(Home)
09 Oct
Mbeya City
1 : 3
Kagera Sugar
13 Sept
Kagera Sugar
1 : 1
Fountain Gate
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Azam
27 Aug
Mashujaa
2 : 1
Kagera Sugar
22 Aug
Geita Gold
6 : 2
Kagera Sugar
Page 1 of 6

Simba

(Away)
13 Oct
Simba
6 : 1
Mashujaa
10 Oct
Simba
2 : 1
Young Africans
16 Sept
Azam
0 : 2
Simba
13 Sept
Simba
6 : 1
Mighty Wanderers FC
06 Sept
Mighty Wanderers FC
0 : 1
Simba
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Simba 8 8 0 0 19:4 24
2 Young Africans 7 6 0 1 17:4 18
3 Azam 8 5 2 1 13:7 17
4 Mashujaa 8 4 0 4 9:13 12
5 Singida Black Stars 8 3 2 3 14:11 11
6 Dodoma Jiji 7 3 2 2 5:5 11
7 Polisi Tanzania 7 3 1 3 10:9 10
8 Mbeya City 7 3 1 3 7:7 10
9 JKT Tanzania 7 3 1 3 9:11 10
10 Coastal Union 8 3 1 4 7:11 10
11 Namungo 8 3 0 5 7:11 9
12 Geita Gold 7 2 1 4 9:12 7
13 TRA United 7 1 3 3 6:7 6
14 Kagera Sugar 7 1 2 4 8:15 5
15 Pamba 7 1 1 5 8:13 4
16 Fountain Gate 7 1 1 5 3:11 4
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara (Relegation)