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Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Hiiu Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kalju play Parnu JK Vaprus in the Meistriliiga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Kalju averaged 1.93 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. Parnu JK Vaprus averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.97 conceded. In past meetings, Kalju won 1, Parnu JK Vaprus won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 30, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Kalju and 1.25 for Parnu JK Vaprus. This points to a Kalju double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Kalju
16%
Draws
33%
Parnu JK Vaprus
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Kalju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Kalju picked up more points recently compared to Parnu JK Vaprus.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Kalju Clean Sheet 19%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kalju Parnu JK Vaprus
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 16 11
Draws 6 3
Losses 7 17
Goals Scored 1.93 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 30, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Kalju
3:1
Apr 26, 2026 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Oct 5, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:0
Aug 10, 2025 Meistriliiga
Kalju vs Parnu JK Vaprus
1:2
Jun 27, 2025 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Kalju
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kalju Compare

Top Goalscorer Orlov M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Top Goalscorer Aloe K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kalju 50 / 100
Parnu JK Vaprus 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kalju Parnu JK Vaprus

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Kalju or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18.8%
2.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kalju attacking → ← attacking Parnu JK Vaprus

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kalju scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Parnu JK Vaprus let in goals in 81% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Kalju went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Parnu JK Vaprus lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 36
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Levadia19144149:1646
2Flora18120638:1936
3Kalju19104533:1634
4Paide Linnameeskond1995530:2332
5Tammeka Tartu1782720:2126
6Parnu JK Vaprus1872922:3423
7Nomme Utd18611134:4319
8Harju JK Laagri18611122:3219
9Kuressaare18521117:3017
10Narva18311412:4310