Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kamenica Sasa vs Vardar Negotino Prediction & H2H Stats

North Macedonia North Macedonia

2. MFL 2025/2026
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The 2. MFL 2025/2026 game between Kamenica Sasa and Vardar Negotino finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kamenica Sasa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Kamenica Sasa
15%
Draws
28%
Vardar Negotino
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kamenica Sasa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kamenica Sasa come out ahead of Vardar Negotino on wins alone.
  • Kamenica Sasa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Kamenica Sasa here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Kamenica Sasa Clean Sheet 15%
Vardar Negotino Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kamenica Sasa Vardar Negotino
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 5
Draws 7 4
Losses 13 20
Goals Scored 1.47 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.73 3.48
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 2. MFL
Kamenica Sasa vs Vardar Negotino
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 2. MFL
Vardar Negotino vs Kamenica Sasa
1:8
May 3, 2025 2. MFL
Kamenica Sasa vs Vardar Negotino
4:2
Nov 10, 2024 2. MFL
Vardar Negotino vs Kamenica Sasa
0:1
May 19, 2024 2. MFL
Kamenica Sasa vs Vardar Negotino
5:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kamenica Sasa 84 / 100
Vardar Negotino 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kamenica Sasa Vardar Negotino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kamenica Sasa Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Vardar Negotino's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Kamenica Sasa found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Away concern: Vardar Negotino has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kamenica Sasa VS Vardar Negotino
0.88 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 3.38
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Kamenica Sasa

(Home)
09 Sept
Kamenica Sasa
1 : 0
Shkupi
30 May
Kamenica Sasa
1 : 2
Gorno Lisice
23 May
Kamenica Sasa
2 : 4
Shkendija Haracine
16 May
Belasica Strumica
1 : 0
Kamenica Sasa
10 May
Kamenica Sasa
1 : 0
Sloga Vinica
Page 1 of 6

Vardar Negotino

(Away)
23 May
Vardar Negotino
0 : 5
Kozuf Gevgelija
16 May
Pobeda
3 : 5
Vardar Negotino
10 May
Vardar Negotino
0 : 4
Osogovo
02 May
Shkendija Haracine
8 : 2
Vardar Negotino
25 Apr
Vardar Negotino
1 : 4
Belasica Strumica
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bregalnica Stip 30 22 5 3 72:17 71
2 FK Skopje 30 23 2 5 72:20 71
3 Shkendija Haracine 30 21 6 3 67:19 69
4 Ohrid 30 21 5 4 78:17 68
5 Belasica Strumica 30 18 4 8 57:21 58
6 Osogovo 30 16 6 8 53:27 54
7 Novaci 30 15 6 9 47:31 51
8 Detonit Plackovica 30 14 7 9 52:28 49
9 Kozuf Gevgelija 30 12 9 9 50:26 45
10 Teteks 30 13 3 14 56:44 42
11 Kamenica Sasa 30 9 9 12 47:53 36
12 Vardar Negotino 30 6 4 20 37:95 22
13 Sloga Vinica 30 4 3 23 31:84 15
14 Prespa 30 5 0 25 30:76 15
15 Pobeda 30 3 2 25 19:117 11
16 Golemo Konjari 30 2 1 27 17:110 7
Promotion - 1. MFL (Main)
Promotion - 1. MFL 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL 2025/2026 (Relegation)