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Azerbaijan

Premier League Tovuz şəhər stadionu

Neftci Baku

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Kapaz play Neftci Baku in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Kapaz averaged 1 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Neftci Baku averaged 2 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Kapaz won 1, Neftci Baku won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 23, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Kapaz and 1.88 for Neftci Baku. This points to a Neftci Baku double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

Kapaz

17%

Draws

52%

Neftci Baku

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Neftci Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Kapaz picked up more points recently compared to Neftci Baku.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

Kapaz Clean Sheet 10%

Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 17%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Kapaz	Neftci Baku
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	10	16
Draws	4	6
Losses	17	8
Goals Scored	1	2
Goals Conceded	1.45	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	0.50	2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Premier League

Kapaz vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 55% - 56% Cards: 4 - 0

0:1

Feb 15, 2026 Premier League

Kapaz vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 58% - 51% Cards: 1 - 0

1:3

Nov 1, 2025 Premier League

Neftci Baku vs Kapaz

Possession: 44% - 56% Cards: 1 - 3

5:1

May 4, 2025 Premier League

Neftci Baku vs Kapaz

Possession: 55% - 60% Cards: 3 - 2

2:2

Mar 5, 2025 Premier League

Kapaz vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 60% - 46% Cards: 2 - 3

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kapaz Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38

Avg xA / game 0.25

Neftci Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Vargas F.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.94

Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kapaz 30 / 100

Neftci Baku 50 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Kapaz Neftci Baku

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Neftci Baku or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +34.8%

4.35

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Kapaz attacking → ← attacking Neftci Baku

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kapaz scored in 55% of their last 31 games.

Neftci Baku let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Kapaz went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Neftci Baku lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 54

0.50 Goals expected (xG) 2.13

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sabah Baku	33	24	6	3	75:25	78
2	Qarabag Agdam	33	21	6	6	71:27	69
3	Turan	33	17	8	8	44:27	59
4	Neftci Baku	33	16	11	6	57:32	59
5	Zira FK	33	13	14	6	43:36	53
6	Araz PFK	33	13	7	13	44:58	46
7	SumQayit FK	33	12	5	16	45:49	41
8	Shamakhi	33	9	11	13	31:40	38
9	Imisli FK	33	7	13	13	23:43	34
10	Kapaz	33	8	3	22	25:61	27
11	Gabala	33	7	6	20	32:49	27
12	Karvan	33	3	6	24	23:66	15