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Kara Gostar Shabestar vs Navad Urmia

Iran Iran

Azadegan League
Our Tip

Match Events

56' Event
Delavarzadeh M.
75' Event
Delavarzadeh M.
84' Event
Delavarzadeh M.

AI Match Summary

The Azadegan League game between Kara Gostar Shabestar and Navad Urmia finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kara Gostar Shabestar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Kara Gostar Shabestar
6%
Draws
4%
Navad Urmia
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Kara Gostar Shabestar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kara Gostar Shabestar come out ahead of Navad Urmia on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Kara Gostar Shabestar's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Azadegan League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 20.4%
Kara Gostar Shabestar Clean Sheet 68%
Navad Urmia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kara Gostar Shabestar Navad Urmia
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 3
Draws 9 10
Losses 12 17
Goals Scored 0.88 0.13
Goals Conceded 0.75 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 21, 2026 Azadegan League
Kara Gostar Shabestar vs Navad Urmia
3:0
Sep 30, 2025 Azadegan League
Navad Urmia vs Kara Gostar Shabestar
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kara Gostar Shabestar Compare

Top Goalscorer Delavarzadeh M.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Navad Urmia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.12
Avg xA / game 0.07

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kara Gostar Shabestar 95 / 100
Navad Urmia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kara Gostar Shabestar Navad Urmia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kara Gostar Shabestar went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Navad Urmia registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Navad Urmia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Kara Gostar Shabestar VS Navad Urmia
0.88 Goals Scored 0.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kara Gostar Shabestar

(Home)
16 Jul
Kara Gostar Shabestar
1 : 0
Shahrdari Noshahr
11 Jul
Mes Shahr Babak
0 : 0
Kara Gostar Shabestar
03 Jul
Naft Gachsaran
0 : 1
Kara Gostar Shabestar
27 Jun
Kara Gostar Shabestar
1 : 1
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
21 Jun
Damash Gilan
1 : 1
Kara Gostar Shabestar
Page 1 of 6

Navad Urmia

(Away)
16 Jul
Mes Kerman
3 : 0
Navad Urmia
11 Jul
Navad Urmia
0 : 2
Saipa
03 Jul
Navad Urmia
1 : 4
Sanat Naft
27 Jun
Pars Janoobi Jam
2 : 0
Navad Urmia
21 Jun
Navad Urmia
0 : 2
Naft Bandar Abbas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Mazandaran34209548:1769
2Mes Shahr Babak341911441:1468
3Sanat Naft341612637:2160
4Pars Janoobi Jam341612644:2260
5Saipa341611730:1859
6Havadar SC341117632:2350
7Naft Bandar Abbas341017726:1947
8Fard341016824:1546
9Mes Kerman341015923:1845
10Ario Eslamshahr34916919:1843
11Besat Kermanshah349111425:3238
12Kara Gostar Shabestar349101517:3437
13Niroye Zamini348121428:3136
14Shenavarsazi Qeshm348111523:3635
15Naft Gachsaran347141325:4135
16Shahrdari Noshahr345151418:2930
17Navad Urmia344121816:4824
18Damash Gilan342131916:5619
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