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Karbala vs Al Naft Prediction & H2H Stats

Iraq Iraq

Stars League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Hamza H.
11' Event
Hien S.
14' Event
Talib M.

AI Match Summary

The Stars League 2024/2025 game between Karbala and Al Naft finished 2-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Al Naft.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Karbala
15%
Draws
65%
Al Naft
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Al Naft

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Karbala haven't matched Al Naft's recent run of results.
  • Al Naft are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Al Naft have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Karbala Clean Sheet 21%
Al Naft Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Karbala Al Naft
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 3 11
Draws 6 12
Losses 19 6
Goals Scored 0.82 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.96 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 14, 2026 Stars League
Al Naft vs Karbala
2:1
Jun 27, 2025 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Naft
2:4
Feb 3, 2025 Stars League
Al Naft vs Karbala
1:0
May 31, 2024 Stars League
Al Naft vs Karbala
1:1
Dec 5, 2023 Stars League
Karbala vs Al Naft
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Karbala Compare

Top Goalscorer Hamza H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Talib M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Al Naft Compare

Top Goalscorer Hien S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Khalaf H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Karbala 16 / 100
Al Naft 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Karbala Al Naft

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Al Naft Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Karbala scored in 61% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Al Naft's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.

Solid form: Karbala remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Karbala VS Al Naft
0.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Karbala

(Home)
18 Sept
Karbala
0 : 3
Erbil
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
07 Sept
Karbala
2 : 3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
04 Sept
Karbala
1 : 0
Al Karkh
30 Aug
Al Karma
2 : 0
Karbala
Page 1 of 6

Al Naft

(Away)
18 Sept
Al Mosul
0 : 1
Al Naft
14 Sept
Al Naft
2 : 1
Karbala
09 Sept
Al Karma
3 : 0
Al Naft
05 Sept
Al Minaa
0 : 3
Al Naft
31 Aug
Al Talaba
0 : 0
Al Naft
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Shorta 38 26 9 3 75:23 87
2 Al Zawraa 38 23 8 7 56:28 77
3 Zakho 38 20 11 7 57:25 71
4 Al Talaba 38 18 9 11 40:27 63
5 Al Quwa Al Jawiya 38 17 9 12 51:43 60
6 Al Naft 38 15 14 9 32:27 59
7 Duhok 38 16 9 13 47:41 57
8 Al Karma 38 15 11 12 43:35 56
9 Newroz 38 14 11 13 46:41 53
10 Al Qassim 38 13 13 12 43:43 52
11 Naft Missan 38 14 9 15 42:46 51
12 Erbil 38 15 5 18 49:61 50
13 Al Kahraba 38 12 13 13 39:41 49
14 Al Najaf 38 11 13 14 37:36 46
15 Al Karkh 38 12 10 16 40:49 46
16 Al Minaa 38 11 10 17 39:44 43
17 Diyala 38 10 11 17 31:50 41
18 Naft Al-Basra 38 8 9 21 32:57 33
19 Al-Hudod 38 8 2 28 37:79 26
20 Karbala 38 4 10 24 26:66 22
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2025/2026 (League phase)
Relegation - Stars League 2024/2025 (Relegation)