Sport Picks
Kashiwa Reysol vs V-Varen Nagasaki - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Japan
J1 League Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium, Kashiwa 
Match Events
6'
6'
Ominami T.
Own Goal
46'
46'
Sub
Diego Pituca In: Yamada R.
Out: Diego Pituca
46'
46'
Sub
Yoneda S. In: Matsumoto T.
Out: Yoneda S.
AI Match Summary
Kashiwa Reysol in this J1 League matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kashiwa Reysol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
56%
20%
24%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Kashiwa Reysol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
56%
/ Medium Confidence
- Kashiwa Reysol have won more games recently than V-Varen Nagasaki.
- 56% — that's where the model lands on Kashiwa Reysol taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Kashiwa Reysol have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Kashiwa Reysol Clean Sheet 20%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kashiwa Reysol | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 18 | 10 |
| Draws | 0 | 3 |
| Losses | 10 | 16 |
| Goals Scored | 1.96 | 1.17 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.66 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 21, 2026 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs V-Varen Nagasaki
4:2
Aug 17, 2019 J2 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kashiwa Reysol
1:2
Apr 3, 2019 J2 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs V-Varen Nagasaki
3:0
Aug 25, 2018 J1 League
Kashiwa Reysol vs V-Varen Nagasaki
5:1
Apr 22, 2018 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kashiwa Reysol
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Kashiwa Reysol Compare
Top Goalscorer Koizumi Y.
1 Goals Assists Leader Segawa Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6
V-Varen Nagasaki Compare
Top Goalscorer Matsumoto T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Iwasaki Y.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kashiwa Reysol 85 / 100
V-Varen Nagasaki 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kashiwa Reysol V-Varen Nagasaki
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Kashiwa Reysol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
V-Varen Nagasaki has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.
Kashiwa Reysol scored in 71% of their last 28 games.
Kashiwa Reysol has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Kashiwa Reysol VS V-Varen Nagasaki
2.63 Goals Scored 1
2 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Kashiwa Reysol
(Home) 09 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 2 Vissel Kobe
03 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
5 : 4 Gamba Osaka
23 Sept
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 0 Imabari
20 Sept
Machida Zelvia
2 : 4 Kashiwa Reysol
16 Sept
Jeonbuk
2 : 1 Kashiwa Reysol
Page 1 of 6
09 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 2 Vissel Kobe
03 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
5 : 4 Gamba Osaka
23 Sept
Kashiwa Reysol
4 : 0 Imabari
06 Sept
Kashiwa Reysol
0 : 2 Yokohama F. Marinos
26 Aug
Kashiwa Reysol
2 : 1 Senshu University
Page 1 of 3
V-Varen Nagasaki
(Away) 11 Oct
Chiba
1 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
07 Oct
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
29 Sept
Gainare Tottori
2 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
19 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
1 : 1 Cerezo Osaka
12 Sept
V-Varen Nagasaki
2 : 0 Nagoya Grampus
Page 1 of 6
11 Oct
Chiba
1 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
07 Oct
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
29 Sept
Gainare Tottori
2 : 0 V-Varen Nagasaki
09 Sept
Kochi United
0 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
06 Sept
Vissel Kobe
3 : 1 V-Varen Nagasaki
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:6 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 22:10 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17:8 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14:9 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:9 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 17:14 | 13 |
| 9 | Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:12 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8:9 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Reds | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:21 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7:12 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:13 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9:15 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11:13 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 19 | Chiba | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8:19 | 5 |
| 20 | Verdy | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 4:14 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
