Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Tobol 2

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Islam N.
Assist: Tazhikenov S.
27' Event
Musaev E.
Assist: Zhumadelov N.
59' Event
Zhazmagambetov Z.

AI Match Summary

The First League game between Kaspij Aktau 2 and Tobol 2 finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kaspij Aktau 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Kaspij Aktau 2
15%
Draws
73%
Tobol 2
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Tobol 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Kaspij Aktau 2 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Tobol 2 are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Kaspij Aktau 2 Clean Sheet 17%
Tobol 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kaspij Aktau 2 Tobol 2
Matches Played 23 30
Wins 7 5
Draws 4 7
Losses 12 18
Goals Scored 1.26 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.78 2.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 First League
Tobol 2 vs Kaspij Aktau 2
3:0
Jun 25, 2026 First League
Kaspij Aktau 2 vs Tobol 2
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kaspij Aktau 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Islam N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zhazmagambetov Z.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Tobol 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Musaev E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kaspij Aktau 2 10 / 100
Tobol 2 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kaspij Aktau 2 Tobol 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Tobol 2 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tobol 2's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Tobol 2's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Kaspij Aktau 2 scored in 57% of their last 23 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kaspij Aktau 2 VS Tobol 2
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Kaspij Aktau 2

(Home)
19 Sept
Tobol 2
3 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
11 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Arys
04 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
0 : 3
Turan
27 Aug
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Akademiya Ontustik
21 Aug
Jaiyq
0 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
Page 1 of 5

Tobol 2

(Away)
19 Sept
Tobol 2
3 : 0
Kaspij Aktau 2
11 Sept
FC Ekibastuz
1 : 5
Tobol 2
03 Sept
Tobol 2
0 : 1
Kairat Almaty 2
28 Aug
Taraz
3 : 1
Tobol 2
20 Aug
Tobol 2
3 : 4
Khan Tengri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 23 20 2 1 64:8 62
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 23 13 4 6 36:27 43
5 FC Astana 2 23 10 3 10 42:43 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 FC Ekibastuz 23 7 5 11 31:53 26
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 23 7 4 12 29:41 25
10 Khan Tengri 23 7 4 12 29:44 25
11 Arys 23 7 3 13 29:43 24
12 Aktobe 2 23 6 5 12 38:69 23
13 Tobol 2 23 4 4 15 40:57 16
14 Yelimay Semey 2 23 3 3 17 17:47 12
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