Sport Picks
Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar
Kazakhstan
Premier League Zhestar Stadium, Aktau 
Match Events
27'
27'
Umaev I.
46'
46'
Sub
Sedko P. In: Agimanov T.
Out: Sedko P.
49'
49'
Poe J.
Assist: Shvyrev V.
AI Match Summary
The Premier League game between Kaspij Aktau and Ertis Pavlodar finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
37%
15%
48%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ertis Pavlodar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Ertis Pavlodar haven't matched Kaspij Aktau's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Kaspij Aktau's way, sitting at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 19%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kaspij Aktau | Ertis Pavlodar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 9 |
| Losses | 14 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.38 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 1, 2026 Premier League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kaspij Aktau
3:2
May 22, 2026 Premier League
Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar
2:2
Sep 12, 2025 First League
Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar
2:0
Jun 13, 2025 First League
Ertis Pavlodar vs Kaspij Aktau
0:2
Mar 23, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup
Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Kaspij Aktau Compare
Top Goalscorer Umaev I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Zulfikarov B.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Ertis Pavlodar Compare
Top Goalscorer Poe J.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kaspij Aktau 42 / 100
Ertis Pavlodar 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kaspij Aktau Ertis Pavlodar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Ertis Pavlodar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 89% of 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
Kaspij Aktau found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).
Solid form: Kaspij Aktau remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Kaspij Aktau VS Ertis Pavlodar
1.88 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Kaspij Aktau
(Home) 18 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
0 : 1 Kaspij Aktau
12 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 2 Aktobe
05 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
0 : 3 Kairat Almaty
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0 Tobol
16 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2 Yelimay Semey
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 2 Aktobe
05 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
0 : 3 Kairat Almaty
30 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 0 Tobol
16 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2 Yelimay Semey
08 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 1 Ulytau
Page 1 of 3
Ertis Pavlodar
(Away) 18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
13 Sept
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Okzhetpes
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1 Aktobe
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2 Tobol
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Altai
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
05 Sept
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
1 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
09 Aug
Yelimay Semey
3 : 1 Ertis Pavlodar
25 Jul
Ulytau
1 : 2 Ertis Pavlodar
05 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
0 : 0 Ertis Pavlodar
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 51:18 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 51:20 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 42:25 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41:35 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38:31 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 35:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 33:35 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenis | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 26:32 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 24:32 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspij Aktau | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 27:36 | 29 |
| 11 | Ertis Pavlodar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26:34 | 26 |
| 12 | Altai | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26:36 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar Kyzylorda | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 22:33 | 24 |
| 14 | Kyzylzhar | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 26:40 | 24 |
| 15 | Atyrau | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 18:28 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu Taldykorgan | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 26:44 | 22 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)
