Sport Picks

Kazakhstan

Premier League Zhestar Stadium

Kaspij Aktau

2 - 2

Ertis Pavlodar

Our Tip

Match Events

27'

Umaev I.

46'

Sub

Sedko P. In: Agimanov T.

Out: Sedko P.

49'

Poe J.

Assist: Shvyrev V.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Kaspij Aktau and Ertis Pavlodar finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%

Kaspij Aktau

17%

Draws

13%

Ertis Pavlodar

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Kaspij Aktau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

Ertis Pavlodar haven't matched Kaspij Aktau's recent run of results.
Win probability leans Kaspij Aktau's way, sitting at 70%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%

Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 68%

Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Kaspij Aktau	Ertis Pavlodar
Matches Played	28	28
Wins	15	9
Draws	2	9
Losses	11	10
Goals Scored	0.88	0.75
Goals Conceded	1	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	0.88	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Premier League

Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar

Possession: 56% - 41% Cards: 3 - 1

2:2

Sep 12, 2025 First League

Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar

Possession: 42% - 47% Cards: 3 - 0

2:0

Jun 13, 2025 First League

Ertis Pavlodar vs Kaspij Aktau

Possession: 47% - 43% Cards: 1 - 4

0:2

Mar 23, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup

Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar

Possession: 53% - 54% Cards: 2 - 2

3:0

Oct 17, 2020 Premier League

Kaspij Aktau vs Ertis Pavlodar

Possession: 45% - 51% Cards: 3 - 0

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kaspij Aktau Compare

Top Goalscorer Umaev I.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Zulfikarov B.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Ertis Pavlodar Compare

Top Goalscorer Poe J.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kaspij Aktau 77 / 100

Ertis Pavlodar 15 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Kaspij Aktau Ertis Pavlodar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KAS Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ertis Pavlodar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 27 matches.

Kaspij Aktau found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Kaspij Aktau remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kaspij Aktau VS Ertis Pavlodar

0.88 Goals Scored 0.75

1 Goals Conceded 1.25

50% Over 1.5 63%

25% Over 2.5 38%

13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	17	12	4	1	30:12	40
2	Kairat Almaty	18	11	6	1	34:12	39
3	FC Astana	17	8	5	4	25:19	29
4	Okzhetpes	17	7	6	4	22:24	27
5	Yelimay Semey	16	7	5	4	24:19	26
6	Ulytau	17	7	5	5	14:15	26
7	Aktobe	17	7	4	6	22:18	25
8	Zhenis	17	5	6	6	14:19	21
9	Atyrau	16	3	9	4	12:13	18
10	Zhetysu Taldykorgan	17	4	6	7	21:25	18
11	Tobol	17	5	3	9	19:25	18
12	Kaisar Kyzylorda	18	3	9	6	13:20	18
13	Kaspij Aktau	17	5	2	10	15:22	17
14	Altai	17	3	7	7	12:18	16
15	Kyzylzhar	17	4	3	10	17:25	15
16	Ertis Pavlodar	17	1	8	8	14:22	11