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Kastrioti vs Luzi

Albania Albania

Kategoria e Parë 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

62' Event
Hoxha E.
90'
Zuna H.
90'
Zuna H.

AI Match Summary

Kastrioti in this Kategoria e Parë 2024/2025 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Kastrioti
15%
Draws
49%
Luzi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Luzi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Kastrioti have won more games recently than Luzi.
  • Model gives Luzi a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Kastrioti have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Kastrioti, who have won 3 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Kastrioti here — 3 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Kastrioti Clean Sheet 20%
Luzi Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kastrioti Luzi
Matches Played 37 31
Wins 17 11
Draws 3 2
Losses 17 18
Goals Scored 1.57 1.58
Goals Conceded 1.76 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Kastrioti vs Luzi
1:0
Apr 6, 2024 Kategoria e Parë
Kastrioti vs Luzi
1:0
Dec 16, 2023 Kategoria e Parë
Luzi vs Kastrioti
3:1
Sep 27, 2023 Kategoria e Parë
Kastrioti vs Luzi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kastrioti Compare

Top Goalscorer Hoxha E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Luzi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kastrioti 20 / 100
Luzi 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kastrioti Luzi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Luzi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kastrioti scored in 81% of their last 37 games.

Luzi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 81% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 1.75 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Luzi registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kastrioti VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Kastrioti

(Home)
07 May
Pogradeci
3 : 0
Kastrioti
03 May
Lushnja
1 : 4
Kastrioti
25 Apr
Kastrioti
1 : 2
AF Luftetari
19 Apr
Skenderbeu Korca
4 : 0
Kastrioti
11 Apr
Kastrioti
1 : 2
Laci
Page 1 of 8

Luzi

(Away)
15 Oct
Iliria Kruja
5 : 1
Luzi
27 Apr
Kastrioti
1 : 0
Luzi
20 Nov
Bylis
3 : 1
Luzi
16 Oct
Luzi
5 : 0
Shkumbini Peqin
08 May
Luzi
3 : 3
Vora
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Kukesi 1
KF Oriku 0
Kastrioti 1
Luzi 0