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Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Iceland Iceland

Besta deild karla Keflavíkurvöllur, Keflavík
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Keflavik host KR Reykjavik in the Besta deild karla. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Keflavik at 1.68 goals for, 1.86 against; KR Reykjavik at 3.32 for, 2.18 against. Head-to-head, Keflavik have won 1 to KR Reykjavik's 4, with 0 draws. They last met on Jun 28, 2026, ending 3:2. xG projections (1.63 - 2.25) back KR Reykjavik to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Keflavik
20%
Draws
51%
KR Reykjavik
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: KR Reykjavik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • KR Reykjavik have won more games recently than Keflavik.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on KR Reykjavik taking it.
  • Regular Besta deild karla form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors KR Reykjavik here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 83%
Keflavik Clean Sheet 10%
KR Reykjavik Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Keflavik KR Reykjavik
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 16
Draws 5 5
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.68 3.32
Goals Conceded 1.86 2.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik
3:2
Apr 12, 2026 Besta deild karla
KR Reykjavik vs Keflavik
3:2
Feb 3, 2025 League Cup
KR Reykjavik vs Keflavik
2:0
Jun 28, 2023 Besta deild karla
KR Reykjavik vs Keflavik
2:0
Apr 15, 2023 Besta deild karla
Keflavik vs KR Reykjavik
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Keflavik 22 / 100
KR Reykjavik 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Keflavik KR Reykjavik

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KR Reykjavik Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Keflavik's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

KR Reykjavik let in goals in 93% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Keflavik stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Keflavik VS KR Reykjavik
1.25 Goals Scored 2.75
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Keflavik

(Home)
20 Sept
Keflavik
2 : 2
Fram
14 Sept
Vikingur Reykjavik
4 : 1
Keflavik
05 Sept
Keflavik
1 : 2
Valur
30 Aug
Hafnarfjordur
2 : 1
Keflavik
23 Aug
Keflavik
1 : 0
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
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KR Reykjavik

(Away)
19 Sept
KR Reykjavik
1 : 2
Vikingur Reykjavik
13 Sept
KR Reykjavik
5 : 1
Akranes
06 Sept
Akranes
3 : 1
KR Reykjavik
01 Sept
KR Reykjavik
1 : 1
Vikingur Reykjavik
23 Aug
KA Akureyri
3 : 5
KR Reykjavik
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vikingur Reykjavik 24 18 5 1 73:23 59
2 KR Reykjavik 24 14 5 5 80:52 47
3 Fram 24 13 7 4 59:47 46
4 Breidablik 24 9 6 9 47:46 33
5 Akranes 24 9 6 9 44:47 33
6 Keflavik 24 8 5 11 36:44 29
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