Sport Picks

Iceland

Besta deild karla Keflavíkurvöllur

Keflavik

1 - 0

Thor Akureyri

Our Tip

Match Events

Brigic M.

Assist: Baxter B.

59'

Sub

Hlynsson A. In: Gislason F.

Out: Hlynsson A.

59'

Sub

Gunnarsson S. In: Haugland S.

Out: Gunnarsson S.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Keflavik in this Besta deild karla matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Keflavik.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Keflavik

Draws

Thor Akureyri

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Keflavik

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Keflavik average 1.5 goals a game right now, well clear of Thor Akureyri's 1.13.
Keflavik are the model's pick here, at 90%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 88%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 25%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.6%

Keflavik Clean Sheet 15%

Thor Akureyri Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Keflavik	Thor Akureyri
Matches Played	28	29
Wins	13	13
Draws	5	3
Losses	10	13
Goals Scored	1.5	1.13
Goals Conceded	2	3
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	3.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 22, 2026 Besta deild karla

Keflavik vs Thor Akureyri

Possession: 51% - 56% Cards: 4 - 2

1:0

Jul 25, 2025 Division 1

Keflavik vs Thor Akureyri

Possession: 52% - 43% Cards: 3 - 3

2:2

May 18, 2025 Division 1

Thor Akureyri vs Keflavik

Possession: 44% - 43% Cards: 1 - 2

2:4

Jul 31, 2024 Division 1

Keflavik vs Thor Akureyri

Possession: 52% - 54% Cards: 1 - 1

3:2

May 25, 2024 Division 1

Thor Akureyri vs Keflavik

Possession: 49% - 56% Cards: 4 - 3

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Keflavik Compare

Top Goalscorer Brigic M.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Thor Akureyri Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03

Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Keflavik 84 / 100

Thor Akureyri 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Keflavik Thor Akureyri

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KEF Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Keflavik scored in 93% of their last 28 games.

Thor Akureyri has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Keflavik has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Keflavik VS Thor Akureyri

1.5 Goals Scored 1.13

2 Goals Conceded 3

88% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 75%

50% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vikingur Reykjavik	14	13	1	0	48:9	40
2	KR Reykjavik	15	10	2	3	53:36	32
3	Fram	14	9	3	2	38:26	30
4	Breidablik	13	6	4	3	32:25	22
5	Valur	15	6	1	8	24:29	19
6	Keflavik	13	4	4	5	18:24	16
7	Stjarnan	14	4	3	7	28:31	15
8	IBV Vestmannaeyjar	14	4	3	7	24:31	15
9	Akranes	14	4	3	7	19:28	15
10	KA Akureyri	14	4	1	9	22:30	13
11	Hafnarfjordur	14	2	5	7	20:31	11
12	Thor Akureyri	14	2	2	10	15:41	8