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Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Scotland Scotland

League Two New Central Park, Kelty
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
McIntosh L.
(Penalty)
19' Event
Hislop J.
20' Event
Moore L.
Assist: Cole R.

AI Match Summary

Kelty Hearts in this League Two matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kelty Hearts.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Kelty Hearts
15%
Draws
46%
Dumbarton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Dumbarton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Kelty Hearts lately — more wins on the board than Dumbarton.
  • Model gives Kelty Hearts a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular League Two form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Kelty Hearts Clean Sheet 10%
Dumbarton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kelty Hearts Dumbarton
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 11 10
Draws 0 3
Losses 16 17
Goals Scored 1.48 1.23
Goals Conceded 2.19 2.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 League Two
Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton
3:1
Sep 23, 2025 Challenge Cup
Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts
3:3
Apr 5, 2025 League One
Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton
0:6
Dec 28, 2024 League One
Dumbarton vs Kelty Hearts
2:0
Nov 9, 2024 League One
Kelty Hearts vs Dumbarton
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kelty Hearts Compare

Top Goalscorer Hislop J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moore L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Dumbarton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kelty Hearts 34 / 100
Dumbarton 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kelty Hearts Dumbarton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Dumbarton conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Kelty Hearts scored in 74% of their last 27 games.

Kelty Hearts went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kelty Hearts VS Dumbarton
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
2.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
100% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Kelty Hearts

(Home)
24 Oct
Edinburgh City
4 : 1
Kelty Hearts
17 Oct
Kelty Hearts
2 : 1
Forfar Athletic
13 Oct
East Kilbride
2 : 1
Kelty Hearts
10 Oct
Stirling
2 : 1
Kelty Hearts
03 Oct
Spartans
0 : 2
Kelty Hearts
Page 1 of 6

Dumbarton

(Away)
24 Oct
Dumbarton
1 : 0
Keith
17 Oct
Dumbarton
1 : 1
Stirling
13 Oct
Clydebank FC
4 : 0
Dumbarton
10 Oct
Clyde
2 : 1
Dumbarton
03 Oct
Dumbarton
2 : 1
Forfar Athletic
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Stranraer 11 7 2 2 25:9 23
2 Clyde 11 7 2 2 27:18 23
3 Elgin City 11 5 3 3 27:17 18
4 Spartans 11 4 3 4 22:20 15
5 Kelty Hearts 11 5 0 6 16:21 15
6 Dumbarton 11 4 1 6 12:18 13
7 Stirling 11 3 3 5 14:24 12
8 Edinburgh City 11 4 4 3 20:18 11
9 Forfar Athletic 11 3 2 6 11:19 11
10 Annan 11 3 0 8 11:21 9
Promotion - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two (Relegation - Play Offs)