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Stadium Background

Kenya vs Estonia

World World

FIFA Series Stade Amahoro, Kigali
Fri, Mar 27, 2026
1 - 2
04:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Tammik T.
Assist: Palumets K.
32'
Odada R.
42'
Sub
Ochieng J. In: Omondi B. S.
Out: Ochieng J.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-2. The second leg ended 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Kenya
15%
Draws
54%
Estonia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Estonia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

31% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kenya come out ahead of Estonia on wins alone.
  • Kenya are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Kenya have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Estonia, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Kenya Clean Sheet 68%
Estonia Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kenya Estonia
Matches Played 22 28
Wins 9 8
Draws 5 3
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 1.36 1
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 27, 2026 FIFA Series
Kenya vs Estonia
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kenya Compare

Top Goalscorer Ogam R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Estonia Compare

Top Goalscorer Tammik T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kenya 86 / 100
Estonia 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kenya Estonia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Kenya Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Estonia let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

Kenya scored in 77% of their last 22 games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Kenya went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Kenya VS Estonia
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kenya

(Home)
07 Jun
Kenya
4 : 0
Lesotho
04 Jun
Lesotho
1 : 1
Kenya
30 Mar
Grenada
0 : 3
Kenya
27 Mar
Kenya
1 : 2
Estonia
18 Nov
Senegal
8 : 0
Kenya
Page 1 of 5

Estonia

(Away)
09 Jun
Estonia
1 : 0
Lithuania
06 Jun
Estonia
1 : 0
Faroe Islands
30 Mar
Rwanda
2 : 0
Estonia
27 Mar
Kenya
1 : 2
Estonia
18 Nov
Cyprus
2 : 4
Estonia
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Azerbaijan 6
Saint Lucia 1
Oman -
Sierra Leone -
Indonesia 4
Saint Kitts and Nevis 0
Solomon Islands 2
Bulgaria 10
Kazakhstan -
Comoros -
Kuwait -
Namibia -
United States Virgin Islands 5
American Samoa 2
Puerto Rico 4
Guam 0
Rwanda 4
Grenada 0
Kenya 1
Estonia 2
Aruba 4
Macau 1
Tanzania 0
Liechtenstein 1
Final
Azerbaijan 2
Sierra Leone 1
Indonesia 0
Bulgaria 1
TBD -
TBD -
United States Virgin Islands 0
Puerto Rico 2
Rwanda 2
Estonia 0
Aruba 4
Liechtenstein 1