Sport Picks
Kibera vs Mombasa United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Kenya
Super League 
AI Match Summary
Kibera in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kibera.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
13%
35%
52%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Mombasa United
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Mombasa United have won more games recently than Kibera.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 42.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Kibera Clean Sheet 24%
Mombasa United Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Kibera | Mombasa United |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 25 |
| Wins | 11 | 16 |
| Draws | 7 | 3 |
| Losses | 12 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 0.83 | 1.32 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 0.68 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.49 | 0.92 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 11, 2026 Super League
Kibera vs Mombasa United
2:0
Jan 18, 2026 Super League
Mombasa United vs Kibera
2:0
Jun 21, 2025 Super League
Mombasa United vs Kibera
4:1
Oct 20, 2024 Super League
Kibera vs Mombasa United
1:0
Jun 1, 2024 Super League
Mombasa United vs Kibera
1:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Kibera 33 / 100
Mombasa United 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Kibera Mombasa United
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Mombasa United Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Kibera scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Defensive concern: Mombasa United conceded in 56% of 25 recent games.
Solid form: Kibera remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Kibera VS Mombasa United
0.6 Goals Scored 0.63
1.2 Goals Conceded 0.38
60% Over 1.5 25%
20% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Kibera
(Home) 13 Jun
Nzoia Sugar
1 : 0 Kibera
07 Jun
Kibera
1 : 2 MCF
01 Jun
MOFA
1 : 1 Kibera
27 May
Kibera
1 : 1 Nairobi City Stars
23 May
Migori
1 : 0 Kibera
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07 Jun
Kibera
1 : 2 MCF
27 May
Kibera
1 : 1 Nairobi City Stars
16 May
Kibera
1 : 2 3K FC
02 May
Kibera
0 : 0 Gucha Stars
25 Apr
Kibera
1 : 1 Fortune Sacco
Page 1 of 3
Mombasa United
(Away) 01 Oct
Mombasa United
2 : 1 Kariobangi Sharks
13 Jun
Naivas FC
1 : 1 Mombasa United
07 Jun
Mombasa United
1 : 0 Nzoia Sugar
01 Jun
Luanda Villa
1 : 0 Mombasa United
27 May
Mombasa United
0 : 0 3K FC
Page 1 of 5
13 Jun
Naivas FC
1 : 1 Mombasa United
01 Jun
Luanda Villa
1 : 0 Mombasa United
24 May
Mwatate United
0 : 1 Mombasa United
10 May
Talanta FC
3 : 0 Mombasa United
26 Apr
Gucha Stars
0 : 1 Mombasa United
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Migori | 38 | 25 | 6 | 7 | 57:29 | 81 |
| 2 | 3K FC | 38 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 62:26 | 77 |
| 3 | Mombasa United | 38 | 24 | 4 | 10 | 51:32 | 76 |
| 4 | Equity Bank | 38 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 56:28 | 74 |
| 5 | MOFA | 38 | 16 | 16 | 6 | 51:30 | 64 |
| 6 | Fortune Sacco | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 61:41 | 63 |
| 7 | Naivas FC | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 47:30 | 61 |
| 8 | Talanta FC | 38 | 16 | 9 | 13 | 53:41 | 57 |
| 9 | Kibera | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 32:33 | 53 |
| 10 | Soy United | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 31:27 | 52 |
| 11 | Nzoia Sugar | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:36 | 50 |
| 12 | Gucha Stars | 38 | 12 | 8 | 18 | 35:41 | 44 |
| 13 | Luanda Villa | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 30:51 | 43 |
| 14 | Kabati | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 32:52 | 39 |
| 15 | Kisumu All-Stars | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 23:47 | 39 |
| 16 | Nairobi City Stars | 38 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 32:44 | 39 |
| 17 | Darajani Gogo | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 27:48 | 38 |
| 18 | MCF | 38 | 9 | 10 | 19 | 24:42 | 34 |
| 19 | Vihiga United | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29:55 | 30 |
| 20 | Mwatate United | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 27:64 | 25 |
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
