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Kibera vs Mombasa United

Kenya Kenya

Super League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Kibera in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Kibera.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Kibera
28%
Draws
50%
Mombasa United
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Mombasa United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Mombasa United have won more games recently than Kibera.
  • Win probability leans Mombasa United's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Kibera Clean Sheet 27%
Mombasa United Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kibera Mombasa United
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 19
Draws 7 3
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 0.75 0.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Super League
Kibera vs Mombasa United
2:0
Jan 18, 2026 Super League
Mombasa United vs Kibera
2:0
Jun 21, 2025 Super League
Mombasa United vs Kibera
4:1
Oct 20, 2024 Super League
Kibera vs Mombasa United
1:0
Jun 1, 2024 Super League
Mombasa United vs Kibera
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kibera 25 / 100
Mombasa United 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kibera Mombasa United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOM Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Kibera scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Mombasa United conceded in 53% of 30 recent games.

Solid form: Kibera remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kibera VS Mombasa United
0.75 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 25%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Kibera

(Home)
13 Jun
Nzoia Sugar
1 : 0
Kibera
07 Jun
Kibera
1 : 2
MCF
01 Jun
MOFA
1 : 1
Kibera
27 May
Kibera
1 : 1
Nairobi City Stars
23 May
Migori
1 : 0
Kibera
Page 1 of 6

Mombasa United

(Away)
13 Jun
Naivas FC
1 : 1
Mombasa United
07 Jun
Mombasa United
1 : 0
Nzoia Sugar
01 Jun
Luanda Villa
1 : 0
Mombasa United
27 May
Mombasa United
0 : 0
3K FC
24 May
Mwatate United
0 : 1
Mombasa United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Migori38256757:2981
23K FC38238762:2677
3Mombasa United382441051:3276
4Equity Bank382111656:2874
5MOFA381616651:3064
6Fortune Sacco381891161:4163
7Naivas FC3817101147:3061
8Talanta FC381691353:4157
9Kibera381581532:3353
10Soy United3814101431:2752
11Nzoia Sugar3812141237:3650
12Gucha Stars381281835:4144
13Luanda Villa381271930:5143
14Kabati381091932:5239
15Kisumu All-Stars381091923:4739
16Nairobi City Stars389121732:4439
17Darajani Gogo381082027:4838
18MCF389101924:4234
19Vihiga United38992029:5530
20Mwatate United38672527:6425
Promotion - Premier League 2026/2027 (Main)