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Kigali FC vs Gicumbi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Rwanda Rwanda

Premier League
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Habimana Y.
Assist: Baombolia M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Kigali FC and Gicumbi finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kigali FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Kigali FC
15%
Draws
48%
Gicumbi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gicumbi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Kigali FC haven't matched Gicumbi's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Kigali FC here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Kigali FC Clean Sheet 17%
Gicumbi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kigali FC Gicumbi
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 8 11
Draws 12 5
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 0.74 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2026 Premier League
Kigali FC vs Gicumbi
1:0
May 15, 2026 Premier League
Kigali FC vs Gicumbi
2:1
Dec 4, 2025 Premier League
Gicumbi vs Kigali FC
2:1
Mar 14, 2022 Premier League
Kigali FC vs Gicumbi
1:0
Dec 1, 2021 Premier League
Gicumbi vs Kigali FC
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kigali FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Habimana Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Gicumbi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kigali FC 31 / 100
Gicumbi 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kigali FC Gicumbi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gicumbi has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Kigali FC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Kigali FC found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (34 games).

Scoring Trends

Kigali FC VS Gicumbi
0.88 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kigali FC

(Home)
09 Oct
Kigali FC
1 : 0
Gicumbi
16 Sept
Kigali FC
0 : 2
Al Hilal Omdurman
12 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
0 : 0
Kigali FC
06 Sept
Marines
2 : 0
Kigali FC
30 May
Kigali FC
2 : 1
Musanze
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Gicumbi

(Away)
09 Oct
Kigali FC
1 : 0
Gicumbi
15 Sept
Etoile de L'Est
1 : 2
Gicumbi
12 Sept
Gicumbi
1 : 0
Amagaju
07 Sept
Police
1 : 2
Gicumbi
31 May
APR
2 : 0
Gicumbi
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gicumbi 4 3 0 1 5:3 9
2 Etincelles 4 2 1 1 2:2 7
3 Gorilla 3 2 0 1 2:1 6
4 Amagaju 3 1 1 1 2:1 4
5 Marines 3 1 1 1 4:4 4
6 Kiyovu 4 1 1 2 1:2 4
7 Kigali FC 4 1 1 2 1:4 4
8 APR 1 1 0 0 4:2 3
9 Al Hilal Omdurman 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
10 Mukura Victory Sports 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
11 Bugesera 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
12 Police 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
13 Musanze 2 1 0 1 1:1 3
14 Sunrise 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
15 Al Merreikh 1 0 1 0 0:0 1
16 Rayon Sport 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
17 Etoile de L'Est 3 0 1 2 1:4 1
18 Gasogi United 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2027/2028 (Qualification)