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Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City

Australia Australia

NPL Tasmania 2025 Lightwood Park, Kingston
Our Tip

Match Events

76' Event
Schwarz H.
81' Event
Swaby T.

AI Match Summary

The NPL Tasmania 2025 game between Kingborough Lions and Launceston City finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Kingborough Lions
33%
Draws
27%
Launceston City
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Kingborough Lions

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kingborough Lions come out ahead of Launceston City on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Kingborough Lions's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 81%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Kingborough Lions Clean Sheet 20%
Launceston City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kingborough Lions Launceston City
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 21 20
Draws 3 1
Losses 5 7
Goals Scored 3.63 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.75 2
Expected Goals (xG) 3.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 NPL Tasmania
Launceston City vs Kingborough Lions
1:3
May 2, 2026 NPL Tasmania
Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City
2:1
Aug 23, 2025 NPL Tasmania
Kingborough Lions vs Launceston City
1:1
Jun 28, 2025 NPL Tasmania
Launceston City vs Kingborough Lions
2:1
Apr 26, 2025 NPL Tasmania
Launceston City vs Kingborough Lions
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kingborough Lions Compare

Top Goalscorer Schwarz H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.79
Avg xA / game 1.81

Launceston City Compare

Top Goalscorer Swaby T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kingborough Lions 40 / 100
Launceston City 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kingborough Lions Launceston City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KIN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kingborough Lions found the back of the net in 97% of recent matches (29 games).

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Launceston City let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Solid form: Kingborough Lions remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Kingborough Lions VS Launceston City
3.63 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Kingborough Lions

(Home)
18 Jul
Launceston City
1 : 3
Kingborough Lions
10 Jul
Glenorchy Knights
0 : 2
Kingborough Lions
04 Jul
Ulverstone
2 : 1
Kingborough Lions
28 Jun
Kingborough Lions
2 : 1
Devonport
21 Jun
Kingborough Lions
1 : 1
South Hobart
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Launceston City

(Away)
18 Jul
Launceston City
1 : 3
Kingborough Lions
11 Jul
Clarence Zebras
1 : 2
Launceston City
28 Jun
Launceston City
1 : 0
South East United
14 Jun
Ulverstone
1 : 3
Launceston City
30 May
Glenorchy Knights
1 : 2
Launceston City
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