Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Kinondoni MC vs Pamba

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam
Our Tip

Match Events

38'
Lukinda E.
46'
Sub
Shemvuni J. In: Gambo I.
Out: Shemvuni J.
56' Event
Tegisi M.

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 game between Kinondoni MC and Pamba finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pamba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
Kinondoni MC
15%
Draws
85%
Pamba
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pamba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Kinondoni MC haven't matched Pamba's recent run of results.
  • Kinondoni MC are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Kinondoni MC Clean Sheet 14%
Pamba Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kinondoni MC Pamba
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 2 6
Draws 3 7
Losses 25 17
Goals Scored 0.53 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.77 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.03 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kinondoni MC vs Pamba
0:1
Nov 29, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Pamba vs Kinondoni MC
3:0
Jun 22, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Pamba vs Kinondoni MC
1:1
Dec 16, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Kinondoni MC vs Pamba
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kinondoni MC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.79
Avg xA / game 0.52

Pamba Compare

Top Goalscorer Tegisi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kinondoni MC 35 / 100
Pamba 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kinondoni MC Pamba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pamba lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Pamba's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.75 goals as a typical output.

Kinondoni MC's goal record stands at 37% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Kinondoni MC VS Pamba
0.43 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 1.63
57% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 63%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Kinondoni MC

(Home)
30 Jun
Simba
1 : 0
Kinondoni MC
27 Jun
Mashujaa
2 : 0
Kinondoni MC
24 Jun
Kinondoni MC
2 : 3
Namungo
15 Jun
Kinondoni MC
1 : 3
Coastal Union
12 Jun
Kinondoni MC
0 : 1
TRA United
Page 1 of 6

Pamba

(Away)
13 Sept
Pamba
1 : 3
TRA United
05 Sept
JKT Tanzania
3 : 0
Pamba
28 Aug
Young Africans
2 : 0
Pamba
23 Aug
Azam
2 : 1
Pamba
19 Aug
Pamba
1 : 2
Simba
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 71:9 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 54:11 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 46:12 64
4 Singida Black Stars 30 15 5 10 47:35 50
5 TRA United 30 11 10 9 33:28 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 30:33 42
7 Pamba 30 9 9 12 32:35 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 31:37 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 25:36 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 25:32 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 15:27 33
12 Fountain Gate 30 9 6 15 25:44 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 23:41 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 24:41 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 25:48 27
16 Kinondoni MC 30 2 3 25 16:53 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)