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Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors

Hong Kong Hong Kong

Premier League 2025/2026 Mong Kok Stadium, Hongkong
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Haddow J.
6' Event
Camargo E.
10'
Tan Chun-Lok

AI Match Summary

Lee Man Warriors in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lee Man Warriors.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Kitchee
20%
Draws
46%
Lee Man Warriors
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lee Man Warriors

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Kitchee haven't matched Lee Man Warriors's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lee Man Warriors's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 83%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 83%
Over 3.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Kitchee Clean Sheet 10%
Lee Man Warriors Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Kitchee Lee Man Warriors
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 19 20
Draws 6 6
Losses 4 4
Goals Scored 2.38 2.5
Goals Conceded 1.17 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors
1:4
Apr 7, 2026 League Cup
Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors
1:2
Feb 15, 2026 Premier League
Kitchee vs Lee Man Warriors
1:0
Sep 20, 2025 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Kitchee
2:3
Apr 12, 2025 Premier League
Lee Man Warriors vs Kitchee
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Kitchee Compare

Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Lee Man Warriors Compare

Top Goalscorer Camargo E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Baffoe N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Kitchee 26 / 100
Lee Man Warriors 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Kitchee Lee Man Warriors

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lee Man Warriors Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kitchee's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Kitchee remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Lee Man Warriors has conceded goals in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

Kitchee VS Lee Man Warriors
2.25 Goals Scored 2.63
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Kitchee

(Home)
17 Sept
Kitchee
0 : 0
Gangwon
12 Sept
Southern District
1 : 3
Kitchee
06 Sept
Kitchee
4 : 1
Eastern District
29 Aug
North District
0 : 0
Kitchee
22 Aug
Hong Kong Rangers
2 : 3
Kitchee
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Lee Man Warriors

(Away)
19 Sept
Shatin
0 : 1
Lee Man Warriors
11 Sept
Lee Man Warriors
2 : 1
Eastern District
06 Sept
Hong Kong FC
0 : 3
Lee Man Warriors
28 Aug
Lee Man Warriors
3 : 0
Shatin
23 Aug
Lee Man Warriors
3 : 0
Kowloon City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kitchee 22 16 4 2 54:28 52
2 Tai Po 22 13 4 5 49:32 43
3 Lee Man Warriors 22 12 6 4 57:26 42
4 Eastern AA 22 9 5 8 39:37 32
5 North District 22 8 8 6 43:39 32
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Main)